PGA DFS: Genesis Invitational – Expected Birdies
Image Credit: Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jon Rahm.

We’re heading to Los Angeles for the Genesis Invitational this week. There are few fields in golf outside of the majors that boast a field like this. That means there is plenty of money to go around on DraftKings. If you’re interested in a deeper, statistical dive you can head over to last year’s preview article

Expected Birdies Explained

Expected Birdies measure course fit in a unique way. Most analysis of golf courses looks at historical approach data and tries to fit a narrative around that. We’re well aware that a golfer’s approach distance on a given hole is tied to driving distance. To just blindly say that every golfer in the field will fit into that distribution is foolish. I look at a golfer’s driving distance, simulate thousands of drives and apply those results to the week’s scorecard to measure how well a golfer fits the course. Here are the results from this week. 

NameSalaryBoB Score
Rory McIlroy1160096
Jon Rahm1120099
Justin Thomas1100090
Tiger Woods1040091
Dustin Johnson1000085
Patrick Cantlay980093
Bubba Watson960093
Brooks Koepka940081
Hideki Matsuyama930089
Xander Schauffele920093
Tony Finau910087
Adam Scott900084
Jason Day880084
Marc Leishman870087
Patrick Reed860086
Justin Rose850080
Jordan Spieth840094
Phil Mickelson830091
Abraham Ancer820093
Collin Morikawa810086
Sungjae Im800080
Bryson DeChambeau790095
Paul Casey790091
Sergio Garcia780074
Matt Kuchar780083
Matthew Fitzpatrick770085
J.B. Holmes770083
Ryan Moore760089
Kevin Na760081
Charles Howell III7500100
Branden Grace750082
Max Homa750087
Cameron Smith750077
Brendon Todd740090
Ryan Palmer740099
Scottie Scheffler740084
Cameron Champ740088
Keegan Bradley73005
Alex Noren730082
Rafa Cabrera Bello730078
Joaquin Niemann730099
Russell Knox720090
Scott Piercy720085
Adam Hadwin720087
Nick Taylor720086
Jason Kokrak710090
Matthew Wolff710083
Danny Willett710083
Chez Reavie710080
Corey Conners700083
Jim Furyk700079
Bud Cauley700086
Erik Van Rooyen700073
Francesco Molinari700076
Rory Sabbatini690091
Matt Jones690094
Emiliano Grillo690074
J.T. Poston690092
Brian Harman690098
Jhonattan Vegas680084
Patrick Rodgers680080
Carlos Ortiz680089
Lanto Griffin680079
Andrew Putnam680076
Charley Hoffman670082
Sung Kang67000
Aaron Wise670079
Nate Lashley670087
Dylan Frittelli670078
Wyndham Clark660083
Luke List660082
Denny McCarthy660063
Nick Watney660084
Vaughn Taylor660081
Joel Dahmen650088
Cameron Tringale650082
James Hahn650083
Martin Laird650075
Sebastian Munoz650083
Pat Perez650081
Scott Stallings640074
Michael Thompson640079
Kyle Stanley640082
Adam Schenk640093
Kiradech Aphibarnrat640077
Danny Lee640076
Russell Henley630085
Peter Malnati630083
Jason Dufner630086
Kevin Chappell630078
Talor Gooch630078
Andrew Landry630092
Aaron Baddeley630088
Adam Long630088
Bronson Burgoon620080
Sam Burns620084
C.T. Pan620086
Troy Merritt620084
Kevin Tway620083
Jimmy Walker620081
Sam Ryder620077
Harold Varner III620083
Tyler Duncan610073
Brian Stuard610094
Steve Stricker610091
Matt Every610088
Si Woo Kim610068
Brian Gay610078
Sepp Straka610090
Joseph Bramlett610073
Kyoung-Hoon Lee600088
Chris Stroud600077
Roger Sloan600092
Scott Brown600077
J.J. Spaun600073
Kyongjun Moon600069
Ryan Armour600078
Martin Trainer600059
Jim Herman600073

Standouts

Jon Rahm ($11,200) has the best course fit of golfers with a five-figure salary. Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is very close behind. Sitting here telling you to consider Rahm and Rory seems like a waste of time, though, so let’s turn our attention towards some cheaper options. 

The $7,000 range is ripe with options. Charles Howell III ($7,500), Ryan Palmer ($7,400), Joaquin Niemann ($7,300) and Bryson DeChambeau ($7,900) are all at 95-plus in Expected Birdies Score heading into the weekend. 

After his top-10 finish, Jordan Spieth ($8,400) is riding high as we tee things off at Riviera CC. His score of 94 is the best mark in the $8,000 Range.

Image Credit: Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jon Rahm.
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