The 2020 NFL Draft created more carnage than usual at the RB position. Teams selected 10 running backs in the first 100 picks, more than any other draft in the last five years. And it’s not like there were a lot of wide open jobs. Only the Miami Dolphins – who didn’t select an early RB but traded for Matt Breida – appeared to have a clear starting role available.
Does all of the hype surrounding the NFL Draft provide a window to buy veteran RBs in dynasty? This is a complicated question, but we can begin with one simple element within it. How have incumbent RBs held their value when a team uses a top-100 draft pick on a rookie?
The Dynasty ADP tool allows us to track player progress over multiple seasons. It’s intuitive to think that the incumbents will lose value quickly, but we can test that assumption and get a sense of what to expect by looking at recent seasons.
For each season, I provide dynasty ADPs for the season before the RB received draft competition, the season in which a competitor was drafted, and the subsequent seasons as they fell out of the NFL. The tool allows us to trace their trajectory before, during, and after impact.