Drafters Are Still Chasing the Wrong Things When Targeting Second-Year Running Backs – The Wrong Read, No. 62
Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Image Credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: David Montgomery.

Players entering Year 2 are among the best investments you can make in your fantasy drafts. So how do you predict who will be the top second-year RBs?

Last offseason, I wrote that, contrary to what you may have heard, we want to chase efficiency at the RB position. Specifically, rookie-year efficiency appears to be a sign of good things to come. It turns out filling your team with good players — players who outperform their opportunity — is smart. More recently, Jack Miller looked at the same issue from a fresh angle, asking whether we undervalue efficient rookies in fantasy drafts — whether efficiency in Year N influenced win rates in Year N+1.

The slightly surprising answer is that on the whole, we do not undervalue efficient rookies. Rookies with negative efficiency had a higher win rate than those with positive efficiency.1

Now, it’s not the case that inefficient rookies score more points or get more opportunity than their efficient counterparts in Year 2. Instead, fantasy drafters penalize negative efficiency too much the following season and overdraft players who were efficient as rookies. Negative efficiency shouldn’t scare you away, as even inefficient players can help you win your league at the right price. So, if even Year 2 players with poor efficiency can be solid investments, what is the best way to find Year 2 RB targets?

Predictive Year 2 RB Metrics

I’m a big fan of correlation matrices (maybe too big), so here’s one that shows the predictiveness of some of the most important opportunity and efficiency metrics we like to use for RBs entering Year 2.

Please subscribe to Read The Entire Article!

 

What’s included in your subscription?

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • NFL, CFB, and PGA coverage included in all subscription levels.
  • And a whole lot more…

 

 

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.
What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2020 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.