Michael Dubner applies concepts learned from his Functional Fantasy Points and NFL Best Ball Win Rates study to expose three WRs being over-drafted, and finds three WRs you can draft instead.
Volatility and consistency are concepts fantasy football drafters think they understand, but are actually quite difficult to measure in a meaningful way in reality.
The other week I proposed the concept of Functional Fantasy Points as the most intuitive measure of volatility. Functional Fantasy Points (FFP) are the weekly fantasy points a player scores above baseline at their position. Any weekly score below the baseline is counted as zero. Essentially, FFP measures the number of points a player adds to starting lineups.
While Functional Fantasy Points does partly predict same-season Best Ball Win Rates, FFP is not predictive year-over-year, and yet drafters still select higher scoring FFP WRs earlier the following season. Thus:
“volatility (aka Functional Fantasy Points) is more determinative of future ADP than it is of future Win Rates.
That is to say, best ball drafters overpay for volatility (measured as Functional Fantasy Points).”
Here we will explore three WRs who scored a lot of Functional Fantasy Points in 2019 and are now being over-drafted in 2020 FFPC ADP, and propose three WRs we should draft instead.