Game Environment – This Low Total Game Will Shootout in Week 4
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Image Credit: Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Drew Brees.

Welcome to the game environment series. This series will provide several weekly games to target and fade, based on macro-level factors that impact fantasy production. For more on these factors, click here. We recommend using this in conjunction with our micro-level analysis, including the buy low report, the strength in numbers series, our quarterback, kicker, tight end, and defense streaming articles, and the slate of DFS analysis we provide.

Week 3 review

Targets

Seattle vs. Dallas
Arizona vs. Detroit
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati

Seattle vs. Dallas was, as expected, the stuff fantasy dreams are made of, with Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson combining for 787 passing yards and eight touchdowns. Detroit slowed the game down against Arizona, and while some players from both teams had good fantasy days, it was a little underwhelming. As for the Eagles and Bengals, that matchup was incredibly ugly. The pace and play volume was there, the points were not. On a personal note, my best DFS lineups unfortunately included either Dallas Goedert, DeSean Jackson or both in a Carson Wentz stack, as I pivoted off of a highly-owned Miles Sanders.

Fades

Green Bay vs. New Orleans
New England vs. Las Vegas
Tennessee vs. Minnesota

I was worried about fading Packers and Saints, and Allen Lazard immediately made me pay. The Packers passed at a higher rate than I expected, and both teams had long touchdowns, generating even more opportunities. Fading the Patriots and Raiders game was sharp, as most players underperformed in that matchup. The Titans-Vikings game had a rising total late in the week, peaking at around 50 points. Both teams had pace concerns and are run-first teams, but when a Vegas total rises that significantly, it’s best to remove it from a fade list. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Adam Thielen were all great GPP plays, as they were easy pivots off of the highly-owned chalk plays. On to Week 4.

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