A Trip to Harbour Town: RBC Heritage PGA DFS Breakdown
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Image Credit: Speed Media/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Webb Simpson.

The Tour heads over to the RBC Heritage this week for a surprisingly strong field the week after a major. The course is a familiar one in Harbour Town Golf Links. It’s a 7,100-yard par 71. The greens are small and there’s not a premium on distance, which means this is a course unlike many others that tour golfers will face throughout the season.

Checking The Chalk

As things stand at the time of this writing, Webb Simpson ($10,700) and Brian Harman ($8,700) look like they’ll be the golfers that come in with the most ownership.

Simpson is No. 9 in the world, comes in with the fourth-best PRK Score, and is a week removed from a T12 in the most recent major. He checks both boxes for the stud range. We take ownership considerations seriously here, but with a historical 60.3% ceiling rate, it may be worth it to eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere.

Harman has been playing excellent golf lately. The lefty hasn’t missed a cut since November and has three straight T12 finishes or better on his recent form resume. In this range, Harman checks only two of the three boxes, which makes him an easy fade for me at this ownership/price combination.

What The Optimizer is Telling Us

If I basically lock Simpson and exclude Harman from the run of the optimizer, we get an interesting exposure list. I limited the max exposure to 70% and introduced a bit (5%) of randomness.

Based on this season’s results so far, it’s hard to argue with most of the names on this list. Chesson Hadley ($6,300) is probably the biggest surprise, but he is coming off of a couple solid finishes in his last two starts.

Perfect Lineup Percentage - RBC Heritage

Dustin Johnson116000.216
Patrick Cantlay109000.196
Webb Simpson107000.153
Collin Morikawa105000.164
Cameron Smith102000.118
Daniel Berger100000.225
will Zalatoris97000.189
Tyrrell Hatton95000.13
Corey Conners93000.18
Paul Casey92000.088
Matthew Fitzpatrick91000.126
Sungjae Im90000.166
Abraham Ancer89000.078
Tommy Fleetwood88000.062
Brian Harman87000.131
Sergio Garcia86000.066
Shane Lowry85000.078
Harris English84000.113
Lee Westwood83000.072
Billy Horschel82000.058
Kevin Na81000.065
Matt Kuchar80000.022
Si Woo Kim79000.113
Russell Henley79000.1
Charley Hoffman78000.154
Robert Macintyre78000.023
Kevin Kisner77000.073
Christiaan Bezuidenhout77000.048
Branden Grace76000.026
Ian Poulter76000.023
Chris Kirk75000.081
Matt Wallace75000.052
Sebastian Munoz75000.033
Sam Burns74000.101
Cameron Davis74000.088
Carlos Ortiz74000.08
Emiliano Grillo73000.093
Aaron Wise73000.067
Kevin Streelman73000.059
Brendon Todd73000.042
Dylan Frittelli72000.046
Zach Johnson72000.032
Charles Howell Iii72000.031
Michael Thompson72000.028
Lucas Glover71000.058
Alex Noren71000.044
J.t. Poston71000.028
Adam Hadwin71000.022
C.t. Pan71000.019
Denny Mccarthy70000.064
Sepp Straka70000.052
Harold Varner Iii70000.046
Mackenzie Hughes70000.032
Harry Higgs70000.018
Doug Ghim69000.045
Matthew Nesmith69000.039
Ryan Moore69000.034
Luke List69000.027
Byeong Hun an69000.025
Andrew Putnam69000.023
Brandon Hagy68000.051
Rory Sabbatini68000.037
Doc Redman68000.032
Wyndham Clark68000.018
Brandt Snedeker68000.017
Russell Knox68000.015
Chase Seiffert67000.054
Adam Long67000.051
Richy Werenski67000.044
Maverick Mcnealy67000.028
Henrik Norlander67000.023
Danny Willett67000.02
Stewart Cink67000.019
Kyle Stanley66000.04
Anirban Lahiri66000.028
Chez Reavie66000.018
Graeme Mcdowell66000.017
Jim Furyk66000.013
Nick Taylor66000.012
Kyounghoon Lee66000.008
Hudson Swafford65000.039
Patton Kizzire65000.038
Camilo Villegas65000.029
will Gordon65000.028
Patrick Rodgers65000.018
Adam Schenk65000.018
Tom Lewis65000.016
Tyler Mccumber65000.016
Brice Garnett64000.038
Tom Hoge64000.032
Scott Stallings64000.026
Pat Perez64000.024
Peter Malnati64000.019
Rafael Campos64000.017
Ben Martin64000.016
Andrew Landry64000.002
Chesson Hadley63000.048
Mark Hubbard63000.032
Wesley Bryan63000.025
Scott Piercy63000.023
Jason Dufner63000.022
Brian Stuard63000.014
Robert Streb63000.013
Robby Shelton63000.005
Satoshi Kodaira63000.001
Troy Merritt62000.023
Michael Gligic62000.022
Bo Hoag62000.02
Ryan Armour62000.013
John Augenstein62000.009
Beau Hossler62000.008
Vaughn Taylor62000.007
Danny Lee62000.006
Brian Gay62000.003
Tyler Duncan61000.019
William Mcgirt61000.017
Scott Harrington61000.012
Ted Potter Jr61000.011
Jim Herman61000.01
Sung Kang61000.01
Austin Cook61000.005
Xinjun Zhang61000.003
Kevin Tway61000.002
Nick Watney61000.002
Scott Brown60000.008
Bill Haas60000.004
Martin Trainer60000.004
Luke Donald60000.003
K.j. Choi60000.002
Michael Kim60000.001
Davis Love Iii60000.001
Bryson Nimmer60000.001
Bo Van Pelt60000.001
Tommy Gibson60000
Hunter Mahan60000

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