Embracing Volatility at Kiawah Island: PGA Championship DFS Breakdown
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Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

The second major of the year is here, and the tour is heading back to The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA Championship. As usual, we’re in a yardage arms race so the scorecard will read over 7,800 yards. PGA Championships have slowly morphed more into U.S. Open setups with their length. It’s worth noting, obviously, that the yardage number on the scorecard isn’t always the yardage they’ll actually play. But it’s noteworthy because it is over 130 yards longer than the previous longest major. Rory McIlroy ($11,500) demolished the field here last time around and is coming off a win, so *insert rocket emoji here*. 

Volatility Report

I’m testing out a new section in the article this week. During the main COVID-induced lockdown I did some podcasts where I spoke about how volatility affects a golfer’s range of outcomes. In thinking about it more and more, I’ve gone back and forth on how to quantify it. So, I’d rather show you, the reader, how I’m looking at volatility and you can draw your own conclusions from the visuals. I’m measuring volatility with the standard deviation of scoring over different time frames. This isn’t my interpretation of how volatile golfers are and it’s not subjective. It’s just what the numbers say as far as scoring deviation for a given golfer. 

In theory, we want golfers that are on the right side of the chart here. Whether you want to target the top half or the bottom half is more a matter of personal preference. As you go higher on the y-axis, golfers are becoming more and more volatile. I’m of the mindset that we should be targeting the more consistent golfers that are in this price range, i.e. less volatile. 

As we go down to the mid-range, we’re looking for upside. Sam Burns ($7,500) comes in with excellent form and is one of the highest-rated golfers in this price tier. These golfers are naturally more volatile than the stud range and we want to embrace that volatility in GPPs. 

PGA Championship - Perfect Lineup Percentages

NameSalaryPowerRankingPerfect Lineup %
Rory Mcilroy11500-0.750.105
Justin Thomas11300-1.420.148
Dustin Johnson10900-1.190.128
Jon Rahm10500-1.460.17
Bryson Dechambeau10200-1.300.156
Jordan Spieth10100-1.160.139
Collin Morikawa9800-1.120.156
Xander Schauffele9600-1.580.185
Brooks Koepka9500-0.550.066
Hideki Matsuyama9400-0.800.087
Viktor Hovland9300-1.220.141
Webb Simpson9200-1.180.128
Patrick Reed9100-1.170.102
Patrick Cantlay9000-0.950.088
Cameron Smith8900-0.730.112
will Zalatoris8800-1.050.082
Daniel Berger8700-1.380.142
Tony Finau8600-1.150.13
Scottie Scheffler8500-0.850.08
Matthew Fitzpatrick8400-1.130.108
Sungjae Im8300-0.790.154
Tommy Fleetwood8200-0.320.057
Justin Rose8100-0.430.09
Tyrrell Hatton8000-0.820.091
Louis Oosthuizen8000-0.770.056
Abraham Ancer7900-1.090.087
Adam Scott7900-0.280.038
Shane Lowry7800-0.320.032
Joaquin Niemann7800-0.950.062
Paul Casey7700-0.680.062
Jason Day7700-0.320.034
Corey Conners7600-1.140.095
Sergio Garcia7600-0.260.067
Marc Leishman76000.130.009
Sam Burns7500-1.040.114
Bubba Watson7500-0.540.03
Gary Woodland7500-0.100.031
Brian Harman7400-0.850.065
Garrick Higgo74001.500
Matt Wallace7400-0.470.053
Lee Westwood74000.070.046
Keegan Bradley7300-0.620.053
Charley Hoffman7300-1.220.145
Max Homa7300-0.550.07
Harris English7200-0.650.059
Russell Henley7200-0.700.056
Billy Horschel7200-0.430.037
Si Woo Kim7200-0.670.047
Aaron Wise7200-0.200.043
Cameron Champ71000.420.026
Matt Jones7100-0.540.062
Jason Kokrak7100-0.800.077
Ian Poulter7100-0.360.013
Cameron Tringale7100-1.060.091
Rickie Fowler70000.160.027
Emiliano Grillo7000-0.910.115
Martin Kaymer70000.570.058
Chris Kirk7000-0.840.049
Kevin Kisner7000-0.090.021
Matt Kuchar7000-0.240.021
Robert Macintyre7000-0.060.038
Stewart Cink6900-0.360.041
Cameron Davis6900-0.470.035
Kevin Na6900-0.230.048
Carlos Ortiz6900-0.070.057
Ryan Palmer6900-0.660.068
Victor Perez69000.820.012
Henrik Stenson69000.120.012
Christiaan Bezuidenhout6800-0.590.048
John Catlin68001.200.001
Branden Grace6800-0.180.017
Zach Johnson6800-0.330.023
Francesco Molinari68000.270.02
Thomas Pieters6800-0.580.043
Charl Schwartzel6800-0.360.02
Rasmus Hojgaard67001.200.009
Sam Horsfield67000.460.003
Phil Mickelson67000.290.035
Kevin Streelman6700-0.360.024
Brendon Todd6700-0.420.02
Sami Valimaki67001.200.002
Bernd Wiesberger67000.200.015
Danny Willett6700-0.020.005
Thomas Detry66001.200
Talor Gooch6600-0.530.024
Lanto Griffin6600-0.390.023
Kurt Kitayama66000.670.002
Sebastian Munoz66000.200.012
Alex Noren6600-0.520.05
Antoine Rozner66001.500
Harold Varner Iii6600-0.480.024
Dylan Frittelli65000.120.019
Mackenzie Hughes65000.160.009
Jazz Janewattananond65001.010.017
Maverick Mcnealy6500-0.090.039
Brendan Steele6500-0.210.052
Steve Stricker6500-0.040.018
Hudson Swafford65001.000.014
Erik Van Rooyen6500-0.050.014
Byeong Hun an64000.880.005
George Coetzee64000.630.029
Joel Dahmen64000.040.015
Harry Higgs64000.430.004
Tom Lewis64000.060.02
Chez Reavie64000.450.008
Kalle Samooja64001.500
Andy Sullivan64001.080.001
Dean Burmester63001.200.002
Jason Dufner63000.250.021
Adam Hadwin63000.190.017
Padraig Harrington63000.990.004
Lucas Herbert63001.340
Takumi Kanaya63001.200
Martin Laird63000.280.006
Aaron Rai63001.200
Jason Scrivener63001.200.002
Brandon Stone63001.700.002
Richy Werenski6300-0.230.054
Brian Gay62001.140.001
Rikuya Hoshino62001.200.004
Chan Kim62001.200
Adam Long62000.470.01
Peter Malnati62000.220.009
Denny Mccarthy6200-0.350.031
Shaun Micheel62002.000
Patrick Rada62001.500
Robert Streb62000.440.006
Brett Walker62001.500
Jimmy Walker62001.300.001
Y.e. Yang62000.890.001
Larkin Gross61001.500
Jim Herman61001.060.004
Derek Holmes61001.500
Greg Koch61001.500
Brad Marek61001.500
Tim Pearce61001.500
Ben Polland61001.200
J.t. Poston61000.000.012
Sonny Skinner61001.200
Joseph Summerhays61001.200
Daniel Van Tonder61001.500
Daniel Balin60001.200
Peter Ballo60001.500
Alex Beach60001.200
Rich Beem60002.540.003
Frank Bensel60001.500
Tyler Collet60001.500
Ben Cook60001.200.007
John Daly60002.320.001
Rob Labritz60001.200.002
Stuart L. Smith60001.500
Omar Uresti60002.970
Wyndham Clark00.110.001
Mark Geddes01.500
Tom Hoge0-0.020.002
Kyounghoon Lee00.010.004

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