Searching for the Perfect Lineup: Charles Schwab Challenge PGA DFS Breakdown
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Image Credit: Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Collin Morikawa.

The Charles Schwab Challenge is being held at Colonial Country Club once again this year. In fact, they’ve played this track every year since 1941. The course is a par 70 that plays just over 7,200 yards. Colonial has smaller than average green sizes, 84 bunkers, and four water hazards. It’s worth noting that we have a smaller field size this week, as well, with just 121 golfers slated to tee off on Thursday. That means that it’s technically easier to get a 6/6 lineup this week. We should be more willing to take chances on guys that are a bit more volatile during events where it’s easier to make the cuts[1]

Checking the Chalk

The trio being discussed the most this week is Collin Morikawa ($10,500), Corey Conners ($9,400), and Charley Hoffman ($8,700).

Morikawa is hard to argue against for many reasons as he’s quickly climbing towards the elite tier. He hasn’t missed a cut since October. Morikawa has only missed four cuts out of his 47 starts since the beginning of 2019. He also has a second-place finish here. Morikawa checks both of the boxes we’re looking for from a game theory perspective but the ownership will be bonkers. You’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you’re going to roster him this week. 

Conners is the quintessential ball-striker that “just needs to putt average to contend.” That’s true, but he only checks two of the three boxes we’re searching for in this range. Hoffman falls into a similar boat, check off two of our boxes here. Their popularity means that they won’t fit all of the criteria we’re looking for in a target in this range. I’m not sure how ownership will shake out at the time of this writing but if Jason Kokrak ($9,000) flies under the radar at all, he’ll make up a significant chunk of my exposure from this range. 

Perfect Lineup Percentages

Byeong Hun an63000.021
Abraham Ancer97000.132
John Augenstein61000.011
Daniel Berger100000.214
Joseph Bramlett67000.037
Scott Brown60000.011
Rafa Cabrera Bello64000.01
Cameron Champ69000.026
Wyndham Clark68000.024
Keith Clearwater60000.018
Erik Compton60000.005
Corey Conners94000.168
Austin Cook60000.011
Joel Dahmen74000.042
Cameron Davis75000.058
Jason Dufner66000.025
Tony Finau96000.163
Dylan Frittelli70000.033
Sergio Garcia75000.053
Brice Garnett62000.037
Brian Gay61000.006
Doug Ghim72000.045
Michael Gligic61000.028
Lucas Glover73000.063
Talor Gooch73000.063
will Gordon62000.014
Branden Grace75000.059
Emiliano Grillo79000.134
Adam Hadwin70000.027
Brandon Hagy63000.046
James Hahn66000.037
Brian Harman80000.098
J.j. Henry60000.001
Kramer Hickok60000.01
Harry Higgs72000.019
Charley Hoffman87000.178
Tom Hoge68000.025
Billy Horschel88000.094
Mark Hubbard61000.023
Mackenzie Hughes66000.015
Sungjae Im91000.149
Zach Johnson69000.04
Matt Jones78000.071
Sung Kang63000.007
Si Woo Kim76000.093
Chris Kirk76000.091
Kevin Kisner72000.037
Patton Kizzire74000.072
Russell Knox73000.014
Jason Kokrak90000.123
Matt Kuchar76000.03
Anirban Lahiri64000.027
Andrew Landry62000.003
Nate Lashley68000.021
Danny Lee64000.009
Tom Lewis00.005
Luke List69000.027
Adam Long62000.03
Peter Malnati63000.016
Denny Mccarthy63000.051
Tyler Mccumber65000.029
Graeme Mcdowell65000.01
Maverick Mcnealy69000.037
Troy Merritt70000.052
Phil Mickelson85000.063
Keith Mitchell78000.038
Collin Morikawa105000.151
Sebastian Munoz70000.015
Kevin Na84000.045
Matthew Nesmith73000.023
Joaquin Niemann93000.122
Henrik Norlander67000.028
Carlos Ortiz73000.072
Ryan Palmer86000.078
C.t. Pan72000.024
Cameron Percy64000.027
Pat Perez71000.039
Scott Piercy68000.021
D.a. Points60000
J.t. Poston69000.02
Ian Poulter77000.032
Andrew Putnam66000.025
Doc Redman72000.068
Patrick Reed103000.124
Patrick Rodgers67000.029
Justin Rose89000.076
Sam Ryder62000.024
Rory Sabbatini71000.029
Scottie Scheffler95000.118
Adam Schenk65000.031
Chase Seiffert64000.039
Robby Shelton61000.002
Brandt Snedeker79000.023
Jordan Spieth112000.152
Scott Stallings74000.045
Kyle Stanley71000.062
Henrik Stenson67000.032
Sepp Straka70000.041
Robert Streb65000.015
Kevin Streelman83000.088
Brian Stuard67000.019
Hudson Swafford61000.018
Nick Taylor63000.012
Sahith Theegala65000.021
Justin Thomas110000.179
Michael Thompson66000.018
Brendon Todd71000.036
Cameron Tringale81000.147
Peter Uihlein75000.035
Harold Varner Iii74000.046
Jhonattan Vegas71000.035
Camilo Villegas74000.042
Michael Visacki60000
Jimmy Walker62000.007
Matt Wallace82000.064
Richy Werenski68000.066
Lee Westwood76000.077
Vincent Whaley62000.026
Gary Woodland92000.063
Will Zalatoris99000.133
Xinjun Zhang61000.004

A few takeaways from the Perfect Lineup Percentages:

    • Daniel Berger ($10,000) is lapping the field and affords a bit of salary flexibility at a flat $10,000. 
    • Hoffman and Conners perform well here also but the ownership is a concern. I mentioned Kokrak already but Sungjae Im ($9,100) is a worth pivot in his own right. 
  • Cameron Tringale ($8,100) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,900) are solid value plays here. 
  • Richy Werenski ($6,800) is a good lineup filler in this range. Of the golfers below $7,000, he’s been the most volatile over his last 24 rounds. We’re looking for volatility in GPPs, though, so that shouldn’t be too much of a concern. 


1 I’ll have more thoughts on volatility in an article series that will be out soon

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