The Charles Schwab Challenge is being held at Colonial Country Club once again this year. In fact, they’ve played this track every year since 1941. The course is a par 70 that plays just over 7,200 yards. Colonial has smaller than average green sizes, 84 bunkers, and four water hazards. It’s worth noting that we have a smaller field size this week, as well, with just 121 golfers slated to tee off on Thursday. That means that it’s technically easier to get a 6/6 lineup this week. We should be more willing to take chances on guys that are a bit more volatile during events where it’s easier to make the cuts.
Checking the Chalk
The trio being discussed the most this week is Collin Morikawa ($10,500), Corey Conners ($9,400), and Charley Hoffman ($8,700).
Morikawa is hard to argue against for many reasons as he’s quickly climbing towards the elite tier. He hasn’t missed a cut since October. Morikawa has only missed four cuts out of his 47 starts since the beginning of 2019. He also has a second-place finish here. Morikawa checks both of the boxes we’re looking for from a game theory perspective but the ownership will be bonkers. You’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you’re going to roster him this week.
Conners is the quintessential ball-striker that “just needs to putt average to contend.” That’s true, but he only checks two of the three boxes we’re searching for in this range. Hoffman falls into a similar boat, check off two of our boxes here. Their popularity means that they won’t fit all of the criteria we’re looking for in a target in this range. I’m not sure how ownership will shake out at the time of this writing but if Jason Kokrak ($9,000) flies under the radar at all, he’ll make up a significant chunk of my exposure from this range.
Perfect Lineup Percentages
|Byeong Hun an||6300||0.021|
|Rafa Cabrera Bello||6400||0.01|
|Si Woo Kim||7600||0.093|
|Harold Varner Iii||7400||0.046|
A few takeaways from the Perfect Lineup Percentages:
- Daniel Berger ($10,000) is lapping the field and affords a bit of salary flexibility at a flat $10,000.
- Hoffman and Conners perform well here also but the ownership is a concern. I mentioned Kokrak already but Sungjae Im ($9,100) is a worth pivot in his own right.
- Cameron Tringale ($8,100) and Emiliano Grillo ($7,900) are solid value plays here.
- Richy Werenski ($6,800) is a good lineup filler in this range. Of the golfers below $7,000, he’s been the most volatile over his last 24 rounds. We’re looking for volatility in GPPs, though, so that shouldn’t be too much of a concern.
|↑1||I’ll have more thoughts on volatility in an article series that will be out soon|