Predicting Future NFL Success for Wide Receivers: The Adjusted Production Index
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Image Credit: Steve Roberts/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Treylon Burks.

This may seem obvious, but predicting the NFL Draft pick by pick is truly impossible. And that’s not what we’re trying to do here. But when it comes to fantasy football, we like to see wide receivers drafted in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL Draft. Those receivers typically produce fantasy points at a much higher rate than those drafted later or not at all. Makes sense, right?

If you’ve been following RotoViz for some time, you may already be familiar with how we’ve come to best predict draft capital and production for receivers, but one particular metric is great at predicting both. Two years ago I introduced a production metric called the Adjusted Production Index (API). It’s a pretty simple combination of just three impactful production metrics:

  • Dominator Rating (Receiving Yardage and Touchdown Market Share)
  • Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
  • Touchdowns Per Team Pass Attempt

Two years ago I outlined how the Adjusted Production Index has shown to be incredibly predictive of future NFL production. And last year, I covered how it’s perhaps even better at predicting draft capital. If you’re curious as to who some of the most recent API Superstars are, I outlined the 2020 class last spring, and the 2021 rookies back in April. Some of the best recent examples of wide receivers who comfortably hit the threshold we like to see: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, and Ja’Marr Chase.

The track record for the Adjusted Production Index just keeps getting better. And now it’s time to look ahead to the 2022 and 2023 NFL Draft classes to attempt to predict the future success of receivers with greater accuracy than ever before.

Predicting Draft Capital

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2021 NFL Draft Rookie Age Database

Here at RotoViz, we like our incoming rookies to be young. It’s certainly shown in the past to impact their hit rate and career longevity…....

2021 NFL Draft Rookie Age Database

Here at RotoViz, we like our incoming rookies to be young. It’s certainly shown in the past to impact their hit rate and career longevity…....

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