Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools to help its readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week.
For Week 1, we’ll use a handful of straightforward stats from last season to get a sense of how each team performed last season from a pass-oriented perspective on both offense and defense. To do so, we’ll consider coverages faced, completion per game rank, completion percentage rank, yards per attempt rank, and attempts per touchdown rank. In the coming weeks, we’ll likely shift our focus and hone in on other metrics, but the ones listed are handy for a straightforward assessment.
Moving forward, we won’t cover each game in-depth but will focus on matchups that are highly favorable, should be avoided, or present difficult decisions.
With that out of the way, let’s go deep!
Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Titans
WR Difficulty Per SoS: Favorable
TE Difficulty Per SoS: Unfavorable
Overall Assessment: Favorable
Cardinals Offense
| Coverage | Faced % | Comp/G RK | Comp% RK | Y/A RK | Att/TD RK | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 100 | 12 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 14 |
| Man | 22% | 31 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Zone | 76% | 1 | 6 | 21 | 22 | 13 |
Titans Defense
| Coverage | Faced % | Comp/G RK | Comp% RK | Y/A RK | Att/TD RK | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 100 | 29 | 22 | 19 | 28 | 25 |
| Man | 36% | 28 | 24 | 16 | 27 | 24 |
| Zone | 63% | 23 | 27 | 21 | 18 | 22 |
The Titans’ pass defense struggled throughout 2020. Malcolm Butler, who played more coverage snaps than any other Titan, will not be with the team in 2021. This leaves Kristian Fulton and Janoris Jenkins to handle the majority of cornerback duties. Fulton covered 121 snaps last season and was targeted 11 times to a tune of 8.5 yards per attempt and a completion percentage of 72.7. Arguably the three best WRs that Jenkins faced in 2020 were Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, and Allen Robinson. The trio was targeted 20 times and combined for 10 receptions and 187 yards, with Jenkins ceding plays of more than 20 yards to each receiver. The Cardinals used 4-WR sets more than any other team last season. Tennessee allowed 5.8 yards per coverage snap when facing 4-WR sets, which ranked 17th among defenses.
From the majority of lenses that you can look at this matchup from, it’s at worst neutral for the Cardinals. Due to the fantasy success of pass-catchers against the Titans last year, and given that the Cardinals don’t have a TE that is likely to be in lineups, this looks like a favorable contest for Hopkins and company.
Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: Eagles
WR Difficulty Per SoS: Favorable
TE Difficulty Per SoS: Unfavorable
Overall Assessment: Favorable
Falcons Offense
| Coverage | Faced % | Comp/G RK | Comp% RK | Y/A RK | Att/TD RK | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 100 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 19 | 16 |
| Man | 32% | 9 | 24 | 15 | 24 | 18 |
| Zone | 68% | 6 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
Eagles Defense
| Coverage | Faced % | Comp/G RK | Comp% RK | Y/A RK | Att/TD RK | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 100 | 15 | 28 | 26 | 19 | 22 |
| Man | 36% | 24 | 32 | 29 | 25 | 28 |
| Zone | 62% | 8 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 16 |
Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Olamide Zaccheaus are set up for success against Philadelphia. The Eagles struggled in man coverage last season but fared better when in zone. Unfortunately for the team’s defensive backs, the Falcons were adequate against this type of coverage. In fact, Ridley ranked 12th among all players seeing 50 or more targets in yards per route run when facing zone coverage and fourth in yards per game. Of course, Ridley excelled across nearly all metrics. He’ll likely be matched up against Darius Slay more than any other Eagles defender. Slay certainly has his moments but allowed some big games in marquee matchups last season. For example, D.K. Metcalf torched him for 158 yards and eight receptions in Week 12. Against the likes of Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Terry McLaurin, Slay allowed nine receptions on 12 targets for 12.3 yards per reception. Avante Maddox will likely be the primary defender against Gage. Maddox allowed a catch on 62% of targets and surrendered more than 15 yards per reception.
The SoS Streaming app notes that the Eagles generally held opposing TEs below their seasonal point production, but it’s worth noting that the team allowed the third-highest completion percentage and 11th highest yards per coverage snap to rival TEs. Offenses elected to use their TEs sparingly against the team.
