RotoViz has always championed drafting young, explosive wide receivers. This is particularly true with regards to second-year players, which we’ve often called the biggest edge in fantasy. This cadre of players sees the biggest jump in targets from one year to the next. In recent years however, the cost of these players has started to rise. But it’s also important to remember that recent classes of rookies have been amongst the best ever, making the same true for them as sophomores.
How much of the rising ADPs is down to the quality of the individual players and how much edge remains in selecting them at elevated prices?
Speaking of edges, I’ve written previously about how to create advantages in various structures:
I also demonstrated how I applied the various Bestball lessons in a recent Hyperfragile draft:
IS THERE STILL TOOTHPASTE LEFT IN THE TUBE?
The simplest way to account for just how good the recent incoming receivers have been is to plot rookie year point per game (PPG) numbers against their sophomore year ADP. The trendline includes only the 2020 and 2021 seasons to make it a clearer contrast with 2022.
The picture this paints is extremely clear; even accounting for higher production, the sophomore receivers are more expensive on Underdog than ever before. All of our research shows that second-year receivers provide the most breakouts out of any age group so we still do want to target them. We just need to be price conscious about where we select them as paying above what is already an elevated price makes it even trickier for them to provide value.
What about on FFPC?