Conor O’Driscoll took down the inaugural FFPC Best Ball Tournament, and followed up with two finals teams last year. Now the world’s foremost authority on this unique tournament format gives you an in-depth look at his process. Part 1 on how to make elite TE builds even stronger here. Part 2 on overcoming QB inflation here.
The current iteration of the Win The Flex tool got its start to life as a way for Blair Andrews to demonstrate the compelling advantage of drafting your WR4 over an RB back in 2019. A key insight was demonstrating the pitfalls of relying on projections based on overconfident forecasted volume. RBs as a whole systematically underperform pre-season projections in a way that WRs do not. Because WRs have historically scored so much more than the available RBs, the flex has been best treated as another WR spot. However, the market has reacted to this imbalance aggressively in 2023. Underdog draft rooms are leading the charge in pushing earlier WR ADP but even RB loving bastion FFPC is not exempt.
The above chart uses the projections from the Win The Flex tool to assign an opportunity cost to drafting an RB over the best available WR at various points in the draft. This opportunity cost has clearly changed in a big way. In 2020, selecting the RB20 by ADP on FFPC required you to pass on a receiver projected for 223 points, whereas in 2023 at current ADP it is just 175 points.
Where to Get RB Exposure
With running backs cheaper than ever before, there’s been much discussion regarding which rounds they are most worth taking in.