In July, we parsed through the three small-gap backfields. We know from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small-gap backs and previous work by Charlie Kleinheksel that the ADP gap between a team’s RB1 and their RB2 has significant implications for how we should expect them to perform. A reminder – B1 and B2 running backs refer to the team’s RB1 and RB2 in backfields with an ADP gap of 98.5 or more. Those in backfields with a smaller gap between the RB1 and RB2 are referred to as S1 and S2, respectively.
Historically, B1 and S2 backs have produced the best win rates, but at very different costs. B2 backs resulted in average win rates, while S1 backs have historically been the worst performers. Today we’ll focus on two more teams with small-gap RBs who might provide an edge in our fantasy drafts. Although it’s early, we’ll use the FFPC Redraft ADP and identify small-gap running backs.
The market seems skeptical about the talent or opportunity for the running backs in these two offenses, though we’ve seen small-gap backs in underperforming offenses can still provide excess value — consider Cordarelle Patterson last season. Let’s see if we can find an edge among these backfields for 2022.
