It’s playoff time, and we’re back for the Week 15 installment of running back advanced stats. Each week, I’ll use the Advanced Stats Explorer to examine the underlying metrics of notable rushers. I’m also including routes run and receiving data to provide a more complete picture of a player’s usage and skills.
Metrics like yards before and after contact, evasion rate, stuff rate, and designed gap rate tell us how a running back is using his blockers, how effective that blocking is, and how effective that RB is at making would-be tacklers miss — all skills that translate into future production. In this way, the advanced RB stats can help us find waiver-wire gems and trade targets before the rest of our league mates.
Low Stuff Rates
Since we had a few unexpected names come up over the last few games, let’s narrow our sample to Weeks 10-14 on the running back advanced stats leaderboard. Leonard Fournette has the second-lowest stuff rate, meaning only 3.6% of his carries went for zero or fewer yards. Rachaad White has a 19% stuff rate (No. 39) over the past four games, with Fournette edging him in yards after contact (3.0 to 2.6).
In Week 12, with Fournette sitting out, White dominated the workload with a 90% snap share, 70% of the team rushing attempts, and a 21% target share. When Fournette is healthy, the Buccaneers like to use both backs, with White garnering a 56.4% rush share and Fournette at 35.9% in Weeks 13-14. They had a similar target share over the past two games, with Fournette at 13.5% and White at 12.5%. Although it’s been ugly, fantasy managers might need to rely on either in the playoffs, with the fifth-best matchup for RBs in Week 15 and the third-best for the rest of the season.
Brian Robinson and Joshua Kelley
Joshua Kelley is a surprise name near the top of the running back advanced stats. He sits at 2.6 YAC (No. 32) and 15.4% evasion rate (No. 27) since Week 10. Kelley might be worth adding for a playoff push, since Austin Ekeler ranks first in high-value touches with 29 more than second place.
Over the past four weeks, Brian Robinson has the fifth-lowest stuff rate, with Kelley at No. 6. Interestingly, Robinson and Kelley have similar percentages where they get hit at the line (30-31%), with Robinson using designed gaps more often (65% to 53.8%). The Commanders leaned on the run game in recent weeks, and Robinson benefitted with an average of 20 carries and 86 rushing yards in Weeks 10-14.
While Robinson’s 2.0 YAC isn’t mind-blowing, he boasts a 15% evasion rate with the rushing volume. Unfortunately, Robinson lacks much receiving volume, with nine targets and a 4% share, plus 0.9 yards per route run. Antonio Gibson has a 31% rush share with a 12% target share since Week 10, and his usage likely increases if the team trails.
