The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still balanced between late-season 2022 and early-season 2023. As we get deeper into 2023, the 2022 numbers will drop out.
Don’t miss Part 1 of the Week 4 edition.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers enter this game with one of the top passing attacks in the league, but also without key WR Mike Williams. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston will try to replace him, but as of yet neither has shown what fantasy managers are hoping to see. There’s a chance we see another 20-target outing from Keenan Allen in the near future. With the quality of Las Vegas’ pass defense, it could be on Sunday.
The Raiders are in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate, EPA allowed, success rate allowed, and boom rate allowed. Meanwhile only two passing offenses have a higher success rate than Los Angeles. Only one WR group creates more separation.
Two factors might work against the possibility of a 20-target game from Keenan Allen. The first is that the Raiders will be without Jimmy Garoppolo, and thus they might struggle against L.A.’s tight coverage and overall pass defense that ranks No. 6 in success rate allowed.
The Chargers are susceptible to the big play, and the Raiders rank No. 7 in boom rate. But with either Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell under center, the Las Vegas’ lackluster offensive line might prove too big a hurdle to overcome. With Raiders receivers unable to get open and little protection for the fill-in QB, boom plays could be few. If Las Vegas can’t keep pace, we might just see fewer Charger pass attempts.
The other factor is that Las Vegas is even worse at defending the run than they are against the pass.
No team allows a higher success rate against opposing rush attempts. They are also a bottom six team in allowing opponent rushing FPOE, yards after contact, evasion rate, EPA, and boom rate. Los Angeles meanwhile ranks No. 8 in rushing success rate.
The way most teams move the ball against L.A. is on the ground. The Chargers defend the run about as well as the Raiders do. Unfortunately the Raiders rush the ball offensively about as well as the Chargers defend.
In 2023 Las Vegas has just a 30% success rate. They are a bottom-five rushing team by most advanced metrics.
The Chargers are currently favored by a touchdown, but it’s hard to see how the Raiders keep the game even that close, despite Los Angeles being down a receiver.
