The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still balanced between late-season 2022 and early-season 2023. As we get deeper into 2023, the 2022 numbers will drop out.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
The Falcons want to run the ball. This we know. Last week we predicted they wouldn’t be able to run the ball as much as they wanted because Detroit’s efficient passing game would force them to play catch-up. Indeed, Desmond Ridder’s 38 pass attempts last week were a career high.
Jacksonville doesn’t present quite the challenge Detroit does, but they still operate one of the better passing attacks in the leagues.
They boast the No. 3 offensive line, and only one team has a higher success rate on passing plays. Meanwhile, the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in EPA and boom rate allowed. Atlanta is stronger against the run — they rank inside the top five in FPOE, evasion rate, and EPA allowed in the rushing game — further motivation for the Jaguars to rely on their passing game.
Because there is every likelihood Jacksonville will be able to put up quick points, Atlanta may once again be forced to throw the ball. Kyle Pitts saw nine targets against Detroit, the most he’s drawn since Week 5 of 2020.
He currently ranks No. 1 among tight ends in both total air yards and WOPR. This might give his owners some optimism that he’s in play in Week 4. Unfortunately, this isn’t a matchup in which we should expect a lot of efficiency from the Falcons’ passing game. Jacksonville heads to London with one of the top pass defenses in the league.
They are inside the top 10 in pressure rate, EPA per attempt, success rate, and boom rate. It certainly doesn’t help that, despite their receiving weapons, the Falcons are actually not that good at passing the ball. On the other hand, if we look only at 2023, the picture of Jacksonville’s defense we get is quite a bit different.
This season they are among the worst in points above replacement and wins above replacement, while also ranking in the bottom 10 in most other advanced passing defense metrics. There is a possibility that Atlanta will be able to find some success throwing the ball.
Of course, that’s not what they’d prefer to do. The Falcons are among the most efficient rushing teams, but Jacksonville also defends well on the ground.
Only two teams allow less EPA per rushing attempt or a lower rate of boom rushing plays. Only three allow less rushing FPOE. Given the most likely game script, we might see Pitts earning targets again. Drake London was not a huge factor even in the Falcons’ Week 3 game, making him hard to trust in your starting lineup even in a potential pace-up game. The Passing Game Matchup Rater does not like the Falcons’ chances either.
The Matchup Rater also takes the end of 2022 into account, which may mean it is overestimating Jacksonville’s defense. On the other hand, the Jaguars’ defensive play over the last three games may be the aberration. By now you probably have other options besides Pitts and London. While both could see some opportunity in this game — and could even surprise us — it may be wise to continue to look elsewhere.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud proved last week he’s a competent NFL quarterback. Houston’s passing numbers going back to the tail end of 2022 are surprisingly good, and Stroud is responsible for some of this.
They struggle in two key areas. First, they are in the bottom third of the league in pressure rate allowed, and they rank No. 25 in time to throw. In 2023, Houston’s offensive line ranks No. 28 in passing points earned per snap. This is important because Pittsburgh comes in with the No. 1 pass rush in the NFL in terms of generating pressure. We saw on Thursday night what happens when an inexperienced QB — even one behind a good offensive line — faces a top-tier pass rush.
The thing is, the Texans are still much better off attacking the Steelers through the air. Pittsburgh allows big passing plays at a high rate, and are middling in terms of FPOE and EPA allowed. But the main reason Houston should focus on passing the ball against the Steelers is that they are terrible at running it.
Houston is dead last in yards after contact per attempt, EPA per rush attempt, and rushing success rate. They end up with a lower expected (reality) point total than they started with on nearly 68% of their rushing attempts. In other words, more than two thirds of Houston’s rushing attempts are actively hurting the team’s chances of scoring points. And this is an area where Pittsburgh’s defense is actually fairly strong, preventing a positive EPA play on 62% of the rushing attempts they face (No. 6 in the league).
The other reason Houston should focus on passing the ball and putting up points is that this Texans’ defense bleeds production to rushing teams.
The Steelers don’t have the strongest rushing offense, but they do rank No. 9 in rushing attempts per game and No. 8 in evasion rate. No team allows a higher rate of evaded tackles than the Texans. Not all of these numbers are from 2023 alone, but this year Houston ranks dead last in tackle for loss percentage.
The Steelers’ duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, meanwhile, ranks third in evasion rate in 2023.
With Diontae Johnson still out and the matchup looking so favorable, it’s unlikely Pittsburgh will ask much of Kenny Pickett and his receivers. That said, although Houston is fairly good at limiting big passing plays, they do not play tight coverage on WRs or generate much pressure with their pass rush.
This should make it easier for Pittsburgh to move the ball through the air if they choose to. They rank No. 24 in pressure rate and are worst in the league in average WR separation allowed, all of which leads to a No. 27 rank in passing success rate allowed. Only one team plays faster in all situations than the Steelers do, and it’s the Texans.
This game’s modest over/under of 42 likely underestimates the number of plays we will see, and perhaps also how efficiently each of these offenses (but especially the Steelers) will be able to move the ball.
