RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons – 1 p.m. Sunday – Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans – 1 p.m. Sunday – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams – 4:25 p.m. – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers – 8:15 p.m. Monday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (London) – 9:30 a.m. Sunday – Tottenham-Hotspur Stadium, London, England, U.K. Expected temps of 50-51°, 0-2% chance of precipitation (0.00” expected), wind NNW-N @ 6-7 MPH (as of 11:02 p.m. Friday). Sunday Update: No significant changes
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Expected temp of 42°, 24% chance of precipitation (0.00” expected), wind NNW @ 6-7 MPH (as of 11:04 p.m. Friday). Rain is possible; even a light accumulation could slightly alter the gameplay. For now, accumulation is not expected, but we might want to keep tabs as kickoff approaches. Sunday Update: No significant changes
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN FAIR/GOOD CONDITIONS
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals – 1 p.m. Sunday – Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Expected temps of 56-58°, 15% chance of precipitation (0.00” expected), wind NNW-N @ 10-11 MPH (as of 11:07 p.m. Friday). The chief concern in this one is wind, and we are scheduled to see currents just in the moderate range, which can slightly affect passing accuracy and yardage, longer routes, and longer field goal attempts. Paycor Stadium sits at a Southeast azimuth, so the winds should run reasonably close to in-line with the field of play, which is not as harmful as a crosswind and can even aid some areas of the game when at a team’s back. These wind speeds are barely in the zone, and if the forecast holds, we shouldn’t see a massive impact. Sunday Update: No significant changes
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins – 1 p.m. Sunday – Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Expected temps of 87-88°, 15-22% chance of accumulation (0.00” expected), wind WSW-W @10-12 MPH (as of 11:09 p.m. Friday). In Miami Gardens, we expect to see two items reach moderate levels: temperatures and wind speeds. Temperatures over 85° can moderately impact all performance areas, commonly attributed to endurance. The heat index could climb as high as 94°, and at this time of year, Hard Rock Stadium leaves the visiting sideline in full sun while the home team is shaded.
