Bryce Young’s Rookie Season Looks a Lot Like Zach Wilson’s, But Perhaps He Still Has Trevor Lawrence’s Upside In His Range of Outcomes
Image Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Bryce Young.

Being the first overall pick in the NFL Draft is often daunting. Especially if you are a quarterback. There is usually a strong reason behind how that team came to select you with that pick. Namely, they suck. But in the case of Bryce Young, the Carolina Panthers made a blockbuster trade to go up and get their guy. This, they hoped. would help stop a QB carousel that has been spinning since 2019.

There were questions about Young during the pre-draft process. Was he too small and slight to succeed in the NFL? Should the Panthers select Young or go with C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson? In answer to the second question, they did indeed take the Alabama signal caller. But in spite of his diminutive frame, could he hit the ground running in his first season in the league? Young is the latest subject in the RotoViz Rookie Comparison series.

By The Numbers

If those numbers make for harrowing reading, you should see how Young fared in the advanced stats. The table below shows Young’s output and ranking among the 20 quarterbacks in 2023 with at least 400 pass attempts.

CategoryOutputRank
Completion %60%20
Catchable Pass %71%20
On Target %59%20
Air Yard Conversion %43%20
Atts per TD Pass4820
Pressure %38%18
Sack %10%20
Pressures per Sack420
EPA per Game-8.699999999999999320
EPA per Snap-0.1320
Interceptions1011
Fumbles1119

All told, Young played 16 games in his rookie season. He completed 59.8% of his passes and finished the season with 2,877 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Young was held to less than 200 yards passing in 11 games in 2023. He had a single game with more than 247 yards. This came in Week 16 against the hapless Green Bay Packers defense. Young finished with 312 yards and two passing scores that day. They were the only touchdowns he threw in his last seven games. Indeed, Young was kept out of the end zone in eight games overall and had just two games with multiple touchdown passes.

Random Factors

It should be noted, as early as possible, that the Panthers did not exactly go out of their way to surround Young with top-tier receiving talent. Indeed, they sent their best wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears as part of the trade that landed them the pick they used to select Young. So who exactly did Young spend his rookie season trying to get the ball to?

Oof.

Young was able to form some degree of chemistry with D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen, who must have just posted one of the least heralded 103 catch-1000-plus-yard seasons in NFL history. But this efficiency was not something in evidence with the bulk of the Panthers’ pass catchers.

It hardly seems possible, but despite all of these encumbrances, was Young able at least to make some noise in fantasy terms in his first year?

Not really, no.

Young had a single QB1 outing as a rookie, with 25.3 points against the Packers in Week 16. He was the QB13 in Week 5 too, so clearly he has something of an eye for the NFC North. But after Week 10 Young was pretty much unusable in fantasy.

Historical Comps

To find players who enjoyed comparable seasons, I did what we’ve done in the past when carrying out this series. I set the RotoViz Screener to find rookies from 2010 to 2022 and selected some basic production and usage numbers as variables. Then I asked the Screener to find seasons comparable to my target player — in this instance, Young

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Neil Dutton

Lead Writer, soft spot for the tight end position. Will never stop loving Duke Johnson.

Sam LaPorta and his Merry Men: The 2023 Rookie Tight End Review

Sam LaPorta enjoyed one of the better rookie seasons for a tight end in NFL history. But he wasn’t the only fresh-faced newbie to come into the NFL at fantasy sports’ most toxic position in 2023. Indeed, the position has received a healthy boost of young talent in recent years. This talent is set to fill the void left by the inevitable drop-off from Travis…...

Noah Fant: The More Things Stay the Same, the More They Change

It may have surprised some when Noah Fant, hitting free agency for the first time in his NFL career, decided to stay with the Seattle Seahawks. Fant signed a two-year deal, which left me scratching my head initially. I had high hopes for Fant landing on a new team, with the promise of an expanded role in an offense and a chance to finally realize…...

Can Mike Gesicki Return to Fantasy Relevance with the Cincinnati Bengals?

The Cincinnati Bengals made a move to bolster their receiving corps on Tuesday. They signed former Dolphins and Patriots TE Mike Gesicki to a one-year deal. Gesicki has been productive in the past, and his signing seems to fit the Bengals’ approach to the TE spot in recent years. But does this move, in the grand scheme of things, matter? Finding His Feet Gesicki came…...

Sam LaPorta and his Merry Men: The 2023 Rookie Tight End Review

Sam LaPorta enjoyed one of the better rookie seasons for a tight end in NFL history. But he wasn’t the only fresh-faced newbie to come into the NFL at fantasy sports’ most toxic position in 2023. Indeed, the position has received a healthy boost of young talent in recent years. This talent is set to fill the void left by the inevitable drop-off from Travis…...

Noah Fant: The More Things Stay the Same, the More They Change

It may have surprised some when Noah Fant, hitting free agency for the first time in his NFL career, decided to stay with the Seattle Seahawks. Fant signed a two-year deal, which left me scratching my head initially. I had high hopes for Fant landing on a new team, with the promise of an expanded role in an offense and a chance to finally realize…...

Can Mike Gesicki Return to Fantasy Relevance with the Cincinnati Bengals?

The Cincinnati Bengals made a move to bolster their receiving corps on Tuesday. They signed former Dolphins and Patriots TE Mike Gesicki to a one-year deal. Gesicki has been productive in the past, and his signing seems to fit the Bengals’ approach to the TE spot in recent years. But does this move, in the grand scheme of things, matter? Finding His Feet Gesicki came…...

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.