RotoViz Newsroom is a new series of articles dedicated to offering concise analysis on current NFL storylines, with a focus on actionable data for the present fantasy football landscape.
In an announcement that shocked absolutely no one, Sean Payton named Bo Nix as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos entering the 2024 season.
#Broncos coach Sean Payton has named No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix as the starting QB.
The future is now in Denver. Nix gets the ball Sept. 8 vs. Seattle. pic.twitter.com/NXkRgdSHnO
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 21, 2024
While many (including myself) had considerable skepticism about Nix’s advanced age and college production heading into the NFL draft, Shawn Siegele saw Nix as a clear buy all the way back in April. For those fortunate enough to read that article in the early months of draft season, Nix has been a clear buy ever since. As one of the few late-round QBs with clear league-winning upside, he is likely the most undervalued QB in all of fantasy for 2024.
After Payton jettisoned Russell Wilson from Denver this offseason, Nix was the QB he handpicked to lead his offense. In that regard, Payton’s early positive reports on Nix were not surprising, as the coach needs his new QB to succeed in order to save face. Fortunately, the optimism continued into training camp and ultimately transferred onto the field in live game action.
After looking like the best QB on the Broncos’ roster in the first preseason game, Nix was given the opportunity to start Denver’s second preseason game and was equally impressive.
In Nix’s first two preseason games he was able to throw with accuracy and anticipation to all levels of the field, while also showing the mobility to be a factor in the running game. The running backs were also noticeably involved in the passing game; a staple of the Payton system that could lead to league-winning upside out of the Denver backfield this season.
If there is any downside to the Broncos preseason performances — and has absolutely nothing to do with Nix — is the lack of involvement from two players who have received plenty of attention on RotoViz this offseason: Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. Mims was able to corral a touchdown from Nix in the first preseason game as both played with the second team, but Payton’s recent infatuation with the team’s “big” (and old) receivers has seemingly left the Denver’s two most electric receivers on the outside looking in for the time being.
While it is disheartening that Payton has full control over the Broncos’ WR depth chart, luckily, RotoViz has Michael Dubner. Dubner’s recent research on WR production in relation to experience and ADP does provide optimism that all hope is not lost due to Payton’s current fixation on the size of his receivers.
Dubner’s research shows that rookies are the best bet to deliver back-end production that delivers fantasy championships. There is still optimism for Franklin to return value at his current ADP. While not as pronounced, Mims also looks to have the upside to outproduce Josh Reynolds and Tim Patrick down the stretch, while also having the added benefit of the breakout potential associated with being a 22-year-old, second-year WR.
With Mims and Franklin looking like they will start the season as backups, both players could see their dynasty value dip to the lowest point it may possibly ever reach, presenting an optimal time to buy for true believers. With no guaranteed money for any of Courtland Sutton, Reynolds, or Patrick in 2025, there is a high likelihood that we could see a complete changing of the guard in the Denver WR corps by next season at the absolute latest.
