Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by exploring the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that might not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signal that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below obviously can’t fully account for new or recent changes in personnel or injuries — in cases where that matters I’ll point it out. But we can still get a good sense of what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the most salient features of the matchup below each graphic. I’m changing up the format of the notes for this week, to deliver the most relevant fantasy insights in a way that might be slightly easier to digest.
One note on the images below: All rankings and colors assume the offense’s point of a view. So a No. 1 ranking in a defensive metric indicates they are the easiest matchup for opposing offenses to face. Likewise, a No. 32 ranking indicates a team is the most difficult matchup. This makes it much easier to glance at the images and see which matchups are most favorable for the offense.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
- The Eagles got a dream rushing matchup against the Giants last week, and Saquon Barkley responded with 176 rushing yards.
- This week the rushing matchup is almost as good. Cincinnati allows more EPA per rush than all but one team, and more rushing yards over expected than all but four.
- The Bengals’ passing defense isn’t much better, but the Eagles have struggled to pass the ball so far in 2024.
- Part of their problem is an offensive line with some holes, but part of it is that Jalen Hurts holds the ball longer than all but two starting quarterbacks. They will also be without Dallas Goedert.
- Cincinnati doesn’t generate a ton of pressure, but they still struggle more with effective rushing attacks.
- The Bengals’ offense, on the other hand, has been effective through the air.
- Only one team is better at picking up YAC over expected, and only two have a more effective offensive line.
- That said, the Eagles are good at limiting passing yards, and they get to opposing QBs quickly. Like the Bengals, they are a much easier team to run against.
- Cincinnati hasn’t found as much success on the ground so far, but Philadelphia is among the easiest rushing matchups. Chase Brown and Zack Moss could find room to run.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers
- The Chargers haven’t yet found their stride in the passing phase, but a matchup against New Orleans might turn things around.
- The Saints allow more YACOE than any team, and have the third-slowest pass rush.
- While L.A.’s offensive line is among the worst in the league, they won’t face a very tough test against New Orleans.
- Quentin Johnston is doubtful and Ladd McConkey is questionable. If the rookie plays, he’s got one of the better matchups of the week.
- The Chargers are still a run-first team though, despite what the advanced metrics would have you believe.
- L.A. is about average at picking up RYOE, and well below average in every other respect.
- The Saints, however, present one of the most favorable rushing matchups. Only one team allows more rushing yards per play. No team allows more yards before contact.
- Derek Carr is doubtful, and Rashid Shaheed was placed on IR. However, Chris Olave will be returning, and hopes to revive a once-efficient Saints’ passing offense.
- That’s easier said than done against the Chargers, who rank among the seven most difficult matchups in terms of yards and EPA allowed.
- L.A. is much more vulnerable against effective rushing attacks, allowing the third-most explosive runs per attempt and yards after contact. Alvin Kamara practiced in only a limited fashion all week, but has been removed from the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game.
