Sean McVay’s Excitement Over Terrance Ferguson Should Get Fantasy Managers Hyped Up as Well
Image Credit: Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Terrance Ferguson.

Terrance Ferguson was one of the biggest winners of the pre-draft process after putting up some impressive numbers at the NFL combine. But Ferguson is more than a workout warrior, posting solid production over the entirety of his college career at Oregon.

After the Rams drafted Ferguson with the 46th pick in this year’s draft, head coach Sean McVay had some flattering things to say about him, including comparing him to Travis Kelce and former Washington standout Chris Cooley. Will the high praise lead to early production from Ferguson, or will he get lost in a crowded Rams’ receiving corps?

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Terrance Ferguson’s NFL Comps

Ferguson came to Oregon as a four-star recruit and 10th-ranked tight end in a loaded 2021 high school class. He saw his production increase every year in Eugene, culminating in a 15% dominator rating during his senior season. His counting stats could have been even higher if not for missing two games (the first absences of his entire football career) after having his appendix removed in the middle of the 2024 season.

According to Ferguson’s advanced stats, he may have been slightly more efficient in his junior season playing alongside Bo Nix, but his production profile with Dillon Gabriel last season still ranked among the best in the 2025 class. His 0.062 points earned per route (PE/R) from 2024 fell only behind Harold Fannin Jr. (0.105 PE/R), Gunnar Helm (0.077), and Colston Loveland (0.076), while his 2.5 yards per route run (YPRR) was also fourth in the class behind Fannin (4.0 YPRR), Tyler Warren (3.0), and Loveland (2.9).

Ferguson was a menace after the catch, with his 3.5 yards after contact per reception in 2024 leading the entire draft class, and his 8.8 yards after the catch per reception in 2024 only trailing Elijah Arroyo. Ferguson was able to do all of this despite seeing his evasion rate (EVAS%) drop to 14.0% (9.3% broken tackle rate, 4.7% forced missed tackle rate) after hitting at least 25.0% in each of his previous two seasons.

One concerning aspect of Ferguson’s profile is that his reliability as a receiver declined over the course of his college career. After posting a 100% on-target catch percentage (OTC%) as a freshman on 18 catchable targets (CT), that number fell to 96.9% on 36 CT in 2022, then to 90.7% on 46 CT in 2023, and hit a low point of 83.3% on 54 CT in 2024, a mark that only bested Luke Lachey and Loveland among the draft class. Given his poor OTC% from 2024, it should not come as a surprise that Ferguson’s 9.3% drop rate only trailed Gavin Bartholomew.

It is fair to wonder if Ferguson’s mid-season surgery negatively impacted some aspects of his play last year. However, he appeared fully recovered for the NFL combine, excelling in the event’s athletic testing.

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Kevin Szafraniec

Full-time Cat Dad, Sneakerhead, Record Collector, LOTR Fanboy, and Jeopardy Enthusiast. Fantasy football writer and beatmaker in my free time. Follow me on X and Bluesky @thecatdadff

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