Blair Andrews presents expected points market shares and the Weekly GLSP team totals to help you find the best plays on DraftKings in Week 17.
Using Expected Points in DFS
One of the best indicators of future fantasy scoring is past expected points. Expected points are the best way translate opportunity into potential fantasy output. Opportunity is sticky from one week to the next. Efficiency isn’t. If we know how much a player’s opportunity is worth, we will have a much better idea of how many fantasy points they should be expected to score.
It turns out that an even more predictive indicator of future fantasy scoring is a player’s share of his team’s total expected points. This is because team expected points are highly variable, and depend on both matchup and game script. But teams tend to use their personnel in fairly predictable ways. The percentages you see indicate a player’s share of his team’s EP.
