In Part 2 of his look at the four league-winning wide receivers for 2022, Shawn Siegele dives into the discounted profile of a player with strong similarities to Davante Adams.
Over the last two seasons Adams has been on one of the greatest fantasy receiver stretches in memory. He’s averaged 23.5 PPG, putting him ahead of all RBs and effectively ending the short-lived age of the uber-back. During that time he led the position in targets (10.6), receptions (7.9), yards (97.6), touchdowns (0.97), target share (33%), while posting elite numbers in both air yards (97.1) and yards after the catch (40.3).
Unfortunately, Adams moves over to Las Vegas where he’ll be catching passes from college teammate Derek Carr. The downgrade takes him out of the superstar WR pocket in the 1.03 to 1.06 range and pushes him to the 1/2 turn.
Enthusiasts will make the argument that Carr offers more upside than generally perceived. The Weekly Stat Explorer shows a positive contrast in QB numbers across 2020 and 2021, the two campaigns where Adams carried Aaron Rodgers with those epic seasons.
| Player | Yards | TD | Yd/Att | Air Conv % | AirYds/Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 269.9 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 50% | 8.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 262.7 | 2.7 | 8 | 49% | 7.7 |
Carr threw for more yards per game and had a slightly better air conversion percentage despite targeting his receivers further down the field. The Advance Stats Explorer lets us break down 2021 specifically.
| Player | GM | Catchable% | On Tgt% | AYThrown | AYComp | AYConv% | ADoT | Att/TD | Press/Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 17 | 82 | 76 | 4839 | 2418 | 50 | 7.7 | 27 | 5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 16 | 81 | 73 | 3754 | 1810 | 48 | 7.1 | 14 | 5 |
Carr’s overall profile holds up nicely and helps explain how he led a feisty Raiders club to the playoffs after multiple mid-season controversies.
The sticking point comes in the TD column, and that’s also where Adams may make the biggest difference. No one is going to claim that Carr is the better player, but he’s climbed ahead of Rodgers in 2022 ADP precisely because weapons matter.
Adams As a Focal Point
Our plans to crush the league from a bad draft slot have led to big tournament wins over the last two seasons, and Adams is a foundation piece for our 2022 plan. The next step is to locate additional weapons who are discounted beyond their true change of context. In today’s exercise, we look at a WR with strong similarities to Adams who’s also getting sold off due to a QB switch. In this case, the receiver to target should probably be rising instead.
I always talk about drafting six of the top 15 WRs in your Zero RB build. How do you get them? By taking the undervalued upside receivers.
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