Shawn Siegele looks at the WR Freak Scores for a 2023 class that could really use some quality sleepers.
The 2023 NFL draft sports a bevy of dynamic small receivers. But does it offer game-breaking alphas? Two of the three stars opted not to run a 40 but left us with a mouthwatering sample of their potential star power. Quentin Johnston jumped 40.5 inches in the vertical and Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted a historically good 6.57 in the three cone. Both players should be off the board by the middle of the first round.
Jordan Addison came into the weekend as the third clear-cut first-rounder and possible first WR off the board. He apparently strained his back in producing a disappointing 4.49.
Jalin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, and Josh Downs often find their names in the first round as well, but beyond the Big 3, this is a draft searching for the next wave of stars to help address holes left by the free agency arms race. The combine is the first big chance to put your name on the draft radar, and several breakout performers did just that.
How can we translate workout numbers into reality and fantasy success? The Freak Score stretches all the way back to the Fantasy Douche era. During the 2021 offseason, Matt Spencer revisited the calculations and was shocked at the metric’s stability: The Freak Score Has Been Finding TDs for Six Years and Counting.
The Freak Score builds off FD’s almost decade-old research demonstrating that height is a key component in red zone TD scoring. Matt verified that this combination of speed, weight, and height has been extremely effective in finding TDs and locating sleepers. Both of those elements are critical to us as fantasy participants.
Now that we have physical measurements and 40 times for most of the healthy WRs in the class, it’s time to look at 2023 Freak Scores. With all of these fast times, can anyone threaten Calvin Johnson’s seemingly unbreakable mark (98)? What about reaching the same rarified air as D.K. Metcalf (91) or Julio Jones (86)? Following in a long line of overperforming rookie breakouts and sleepers, Christian Watson led the 2022 class with a 78. He went on to lead all rookies in fantasy points over expectation (2.6 per game) and yards per route (2.48).
