The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Trevor Lawrence is listed as questionable but did travel with the team to Tampa Bay. Jacksonville would especially like to have Lawrence under center as the Buccaneers are exploitable through the air.
- Although no team allows a higher success rate on rushing plays than Tampa Bay, only two allow a lower boom rate on rushing plays. Their peripherals suggest the latter ranking may be more indicative of their defensive talent.
- Zay Jones is also questionable, and if he can’t play the team will rely on Calvin Ridley and rookie Parker Washington. Washington is coming off a game in which he earned six targets, but turned them into only 12 yards. That said, he has the No. 2 matchup according to the alignment data.
- Jacksonville presents a tougher passing matchup than rushing matchup, but has not been strong in either phase recently. Given the Jaguars’ ability to put pressure on opposing QBs, Tampa Bay may opt to get the ball in Rachaad White’s hands as quickly as possible. White has either gained over 100 yards or scored a TD in every game since Week 8.
