It’s time to come clean. I’m not particularly good at this. Real talk? I’m not sure that many are, even if they purport to be. And honestly? I’ve always sort of taken the whole thing for granted; despite my love for the idea of it, I’ve treated individual defensive players (IDPs) like second-class citizens.
Well, the buck stops here.
***(Keep reading, and I’ll give you a link to play in a free league with me!)***
THE EVOLUTION OF MY INDOCTRINATION INTO A CULT
I first played in an IDP league in 2007 — and that was a mere technicality — when a home league I was in added a single defensive player. Look. I’m not here to yuck anyone’s yum, but this is objectively absurd. You know, I don’t blame my buddies in context; we were young and didn’t know. But you think a kicker or DST is easy to stream? That’s pulling one starter from an available pool of 32. Try pulling one from a pool of 500.
Even to my relatively untrained mind, I knew well enough to punt this lone IDP starter and stream based on matchups, so I never fell for the distraction. Even when we expanded to one DL, one LB, and one DB a year later, we were still well behind the supply-and-demand dynamic for kickers and DSTs, so it didn’t change anything.
But in 2016, I started a dynasty league with 16 of my pals. The idea was to find a better NFL simulation that included playing an abundance of IDPs. Suddenly, there was scarcity at those positions, and that changed everything.
Quickly, I fell in love with the format. Similar to how we’ve all had the shared experience of discovering and cheering for players on arbitrary teams in rando games when we first fell in love with traditional fantasy football, I was suddenly laser-focused on LBs from Arizona and DLs from Indianapolis, tensing when they came close to a sack or exalting when they secured a fumble recovery. Suddenly, there was a very real possibility that a big game by J.J. Watt could turn the tables for my whole week.
SWIMMING WITH THE SCHOOL: A CONFESSION
But here’s what’s weird. I’m a fantasy analyst. I break down deep trends, do huge data studies, and understand which stats are predictive and which are noise. I have spent an entire month trying to answer a single question that might unearth a microscopic edge at QB, WR, RB, or TE. But despite playing this specialized form of the game, and despite already “knowing how to fish,” I was content to accept the word of others when it came to IDPs.
Finally, it has occurred to me: I’m being lazy, and I’m normally not. I should apply myself to LBs the same way I do to WRs.
WHAT SEEMS INTUITIVE ABOUT INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE PLAYERS
In my defense (no pun intended), I’ve long assumed IDP fantasy production had more to do with attendance than anything else. Even now, I only expect to verify that. Volume, after all, is what ultimately makes the machine go brrr in every other aspect of fantasy football. The most important skill? Participation. So, in a way, the most important thing you could do is Google Ourlads’ depth charts and plug in someone who is actually playing.
And I’m intuitive. Even early on, I realized that IDPs from strong defenses aren’t on the field as often. Playing with a lead is a bit like being ahead in the count: offenses become more conservative, leading to fewer sacks and turnovers but more opportunities for underneath tackles. Teams chasing points take greater risks and fail more often. Likewise, pass-rush specialists tend to earn more snaps, while DBs see more pass-defense opportunities when protecting a lead. That much feels fairly instinctual.
But there is still so much to investigate. Do certain schemes drive specific types of production? Would zone defenders, facing the quarterback, generate more interceptions? Do two-high shells create more tackle opportunities for coverage linebackers and fewer sacks for DLs? Are higher blitz rates more volatile? Is pressure rate more predictive than sacks?
And if any of that is true, how much? Which statistics actually correlate to fantasy scoring, and which are sticky enough to repeat? Those are the questions I need to answer. Hopefully, I’ll get there. For now, I’m starting at the bottom.
NOTES FROM AN IDP POSER’S QUEST FOR UNDERSTANDING: INTRODUCING THE GREEN DOT
Let me treat this like a journal. I’m going to ask questions and answer them, building my understanding piece by piece right in front of you. In doing so, I hope to accomplish two things: first, to learn IDP fantasy football at a high level; second, to share a blueprint for a strong analytical process. If it works, perhaps the lessons will extend beyond IDP and help others think through any corner of fantasy football they choose to explore.
And I’m going to do something really strange. I’m going to invite you along . . . literally. I’ve opened a league on Fantrax — a free league, first-come, first-served. If you want to play, just click the link at the end of the article. Come take advantage of a vulnerable pro who doesn’t yet know what he’s doing in this format. You can brag to all your friends about taking me down, and you never know who else might join.
