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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

NFL Week 1 RB Market Share Report

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of my RB Market Share Report. In this column, I report usage statistics and advanced metrics for each NFL backfield. I will also summarize RB workload statistics for all 32 NFL teams and highlight key trends as applicable. I will publish updates to this column each week following the conclusion of Monday night’s games. As more games are played, our market share data become increasingly reliable — but at the expense of our foresighted edge on the public. Therefore, utilize this data to gain insight into play-calling trends and to target players with advantageous…...

Should You Bet on a Nebraska Turnaround?: DraftKings Week 2 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season rolls on with 11 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Slate Overview Roster Construction This week’s main slate offers enormous wide receiver upside, some nice running back values, and a lot of quarterback parity. After testing out a ludicrous number of roster permutations, a roster construction paradigm has emerged: In order to pay up at WR, we need to fade the top QBs. Instead, focus on the middle of the distribution (from $6,200 to $7,700). RB offers some nice values above $7,000, but it’s not the priority this week; WR is where I want to spend my…...

NFL Roster Cuts Fallout: Fantasy RBs to Place On Your Watch List

This weekend, we closed the chapter on the NFL preseason and opened Pandora’s box with a flurry of roster cuts and transactions. Among running backs that saw preseason action, over half of them were waived, released, or placed on Injured Reserve on Sunday. For many players, Sunday’s roster cuts marked the end of their 2019 NFL seasons (practice squad action notwithstanding). However, a few fortunate players found new NFL homes, including LeSean McCoy (Kansas City Chiefs), Devine Ozigbo (Jacksonville Jaguars), and Wendell Smallwood (Washington). Now that the weekend’s madness has (mostly) settled down, let’s take a look at the biggest winners…...

Memphis Will Run All Over Ole Miss: DraftKings Week 1 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season continues with 10 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Toledo at Kentucky (-12), Over/Under: 62 — 12 p.m. ET Mississippi State (-20) vs. Louisiana, Over/Under: 60 — 12 p.m. ET Ole Miss at Memphis (-5), Over/Under: 66 — 12 p.m. ET East Carolina at North Carolina State (-17), Over/Under: 53.5 — 12 p.m. ET Indiana (-17.5) vs. Ball State, Over/Under: 60 — 12 p.m. ET Florida Atlantic at Ohio State (-27.5), Over/Under: 64 — 12 p.m. ET Alabama (-33.5) vs. Duke, Over/Under: 57 — 3:30 p.m. ET South Carolina (-11) vs. North Carolina, Over/Under: 63 — 3:30…...

Fantasy WR Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production. In the conclusion to my Passing Revolution series, I provided an early-round draft day overview that focused heavily on roster construction dynamics and draft flow. Last week, I channeled the spirit of that series conclusion to formulate Fantasy RB Tiers Based On My Passing Revolution And Game Script Studies. In…...

Andrew Luck’s Retirement Shouldn’t Affect Marlon Mack’s Fantasy Value

On Saturday evening, Andrew Luck shocked the sporting world by announcing his retirement. This news took everyone off guard, throwing active fantasy drafts into a frenzy as everyone scrambled to revise fantasy projections for the Colts’ skill position players. In the wake of Saturday’s news, Matt Jones published an excellent piece explaining why T.Y. Hilton is still a redraft buy even without Luck. Now, it’s my turn to dispel some Colts-related anxiety by advocating against fading Marlon Mack. Mack’s Projected Game Script Should Not Change As of Sunday evening, FanDuel put the Indianapolis Colts’ win total back on the board at…...

Fantasy RB Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production. In the conclusion to my Passing Revolution series, I provided an early-round draft day overview that focused heavily on roster construction dynamics and draft flow. In this article, I’ll be doing something similar — but perhaps in greater depth. My Rankings Methods I integrated my findings from both series in…...

Offensive Eruption in Honolulu: DraftKings CFB DFS Week 0 GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season kicks off this Saturday at 7pm ET with two games featured in DraftKings’ evening slate. Florida (-7.5) vs. Miami (FL), Over/Under: 47.5 — 7:00 pm ET Arizona (-11) at Hawai’i, Over/Under: 74 — 10:30 pm ET Matchups at a Glance Here’s a quick layman’s guide for each of these advanced metrics (reported metrics are based on team rank among 130 FBS teams). Note that each of these metrics may be used to describe a team’s offensive efficiency or a team’s ability to defend against opposing offenses in the given category. Success Rt+ — Measures a team’s yardage efficiency by…...

Jaylen Samuels May Be the Biggest Winner from Antonio Brown’s Departure in Pittsburgh

Antonio Brown’s decision to force himself out of Pittsburgh leaves a gaping 150-plus target void among the Steelers receiving corps. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has consistently ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, so we know those targets are going to be redistributed somehow. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the obvious lock to assume Brown’s previous WR1 role. But who will receive the lion’s share of Smith-Schuster’s previous WR2 targets? Public Consensus Candidates to Break Out This Season Initially, James Washington seemed like the safest bet to inherit a large portion of Pittsburgh’s remaining target share. However, some analysts contended that…...

With Kenyan Drake In a Walking Boot, You Have to Buy Kalen Ballage Before It’s Too Late

Kenyan Drake sustained a right foot injury during practice on Tuesday, August 13, and was seen in in a walking boot on Wednesday. In Drake’s absence, Kalen Ballage has an expanded opportunity for first-team reps and has already been making waves on social media. Kalen Ballage is coming.pic.twitter.com/5S8ECruhTM — FFcouchcoach ⚖️ (@FFcouchcoach) August 14, 2019 Ballage has been a trendy Year 2 breakout candidate, and his ADP has risen steadily since mid-July. Drake’s injury news — which may threaten his Week 1 status — could push Ballage’s ADP even further. Ballage Sits in the “Perfect Price Window” for RBs Ballage’s current…...

NFL Week 1 RB Market Share Report

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of my RB Market Share Report. In this column, I report usage statistics and advanced metrics for each NFL backfield. I will also summarize RB workload statistics for all 32 NFL teams and highlight key trends as applicable. I will publish updates to this column each week following the conclusion of Monday night’s games. As more games are played, our market share data become increasingly reliable — but at the expense of our foresighted edge on the public. Therefore, utilize this data to gain insight into play-calling trends and to target players with advantageous…...

Should You Bet on a Nebraska Turnaround?: DraftKings Week 2 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season rolls on with 11 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Slate Overview Roster Construction This week’s main slate offers enormous wide receiver upside, some nice running back values, and a lot of quarterback parity. After testing out a ludicrous number of roster permutations, a roster construction paradigm has emerged: In order to pay up at WR, we need to fade the top QBs. Instead, focus on the middle of the distribution (from $6,200 to $7,700). RB offers some nice values above $7,000, but it’s not the priority this week; WR is where I want to spend my…...

NFL Roster Cuts Fallout: Fantasy RBs to Place On Your Watch List

This weekend, we closed the chapter on the NFL preseason and opened Pandora’s box with a flurry of roster cuts and transactions. Among running backs that saw preseason action, over half of them were waived, released, or placed on Injured Reserve on Sunday. For many players, Sunday’s roster cuts marked the end of their 2019 NFL seasons (practice squad action notwithstanding). However, a few fortunate players found new NFL homes, including LeSean McCoy (Kansas City Chiefs), Devine Ozigbo (Jacksonville Jaguars), and Wendell Smallwood (Washington). Now that the weekend’s madness has (mostly) settled down, let’s take a look at the biggest winners…...

Memphis Will Run All Over Ole Miss: DraftKings Week 1 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season continues with 10 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Toledo at Kentucky (-12), Over/Under: 62 — 12 p.m. ET Mississippi State (-20) vs. Louisiana, Over/Under: 60 — 12 p.m. ET Ole Miss at Memphis (-5), Over/Under: 66 — 12 p.m. ET East Carolina at North Carolina State (-17), Over/Under: 53.5 — 12 p.m. ET Indiana (-17.5) vs. Ball State, Over/Under: 60 — 12 p.m. ET Florida Atlantic at Ohio State (-27.5), Over/Under: 64 — 12 p.m. ET Alabama (-33.5) vs. Duke, Over/Under: 57 — 3:30 p.m. ET South Carolina (-11) vs. North Carolina, Over/Under: 63 — 3:30…...

Fantasy WR Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production. In the conclusion to my Passing Revolution series, I provided an early-round draft day overview that focused heavily on roster construction dynamics and draft flow. Last week, I channeled the spirit of that series conclusion to formulate Fantasy RB Tiers Based On My Passing Revolution And Game Script Studies. In…...

Andrew Luck’s Retirement Shouldn’t Affect Marlon Mack’s Fantasy Value

On Saturday evening, Andrew Luck shocked the sporting world by announcing his retirement. This news took everyone off guard, throwing active fantasy drafts into a frenzy as everyone scrambled to revise fantasy projections for the Colts’ skill position players. In the wake of Saturday’s news, Matt Jones published an excellent piece explaining why T.Y. Hilton is still a redraft buy even without Luck. Now, it’s my turn to dispel some Colts-related anxiety by advocating against fading Marlon Mack. Mack’s Projected Game Script Should Not Change As of Sunday evening, FanDuel put the Indianapolis Colts’ win total back on the board at…...

Fantasy RB Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production. In the conclusion to my Passing Revolution series, I provided an early-round draft day overview that focused heavily on roster construction dynamics and draft flow. In this article, I’ll be doing something similar — but perhaps in greater depth. My Rankings Methods I integrated my findings from both series in…...

Offensive Eruption in Honolulu: DraftKings CFB DFS Week 0 GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season kicks off this Saturday at 7pm ET with two games featured in DraftKings’ evening slate. Florida (-7.5) vs. Miami (FL), Over/Under: 47.5 — 7:00 pm ET Arizona (-11) at Hawai’i, Over/Under: 74 — 10:30 pm ET Matchups at a Glance Here’s a quick layman’s guide for each of these advanced metrics (reported metrics are based on team rank among 130 FBS teams). Note that each of these metrics may be used to describe a team’s offensive efficiency or a team’s ability to defend against opposing offenses in the given category. Success Rt+ — Measures a team’s yardage efficiency by…...

Jaylen Samuels May Be the Biggest Winner from Antonio Brown’s Departure in Pittsburgh

Antonio Brown’s decision to force himself out of Pittsburgh leaves a gaping 150-plus target void among the Steelers receiving corps. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has consistently ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, so we know those targets are going to be redistributed somehow. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the obvious lock to assume Brown’s previous WR1 role. But who will receive the lion’s share of Smith-Schuster’s previous WR2 targets? Public Consensus Candidates to Break Out This Season Initially, James Washington seemed like the safest bet to inherit a large portion of Pittsburgh’s remaining target share. However, some analysts contended that…...

With Kenyan Drake In a Walking Boot, You Have to Buy Kalen Ballage Before It’s Too Late

Kenyan Drake sustained a right foot injury during practice on Tuesday, August 13, and was seen in in a walking boot on Wednesday. In Drake’s absence, Kalen Ballage has an expanded opportunity for first-team reps and has already been making waves on social media. Kalen Ballage is coming.pic.twitter.com/5S8ECruhTM — FFcouchcoach ⚖️ (@FFcouchcoach) August 14, 2019 Ballage has been a trendy Year 2 breakout candidate, and his ADP has risen steadily since mid-July. Drake’s injury news — which may threaten his Week 1 status — could push Ballage’s ADP even further. Ballage Sits in the “Perfect Price Window” for RBs Ballage’s current…...

NFL Week 1 RB Market Share Report

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of my RB Market Share Report. In this column, I report usage statistics and advanced metrics for each NFL backfield. I will also summarize RB workload statistics for all 32 NFL teams and highlight key trends as applicable. I will publish updates to this…...

Should You Bet on a Nebraska Turnaround?: DraftKings Week 2 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season rolls on with 11 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Slate Overview Roster Construction This week’s main slate offers enormous wide receiver upside, some nice running back values, and a lot of quarterback parity. After testing out a ludicrous number of roster permutations, a roster construction paradigm…...

NFL Roster Cuts Fallout: Fantasy RBs to Place On Your Watch List

This weekend, we closed the chapter on the NFL preseason and opened Pandora’s box with a flurry of roster cuts and transactions. Among running backs that saw preseason action, over half of them were waived, released, or placed on Injured Reserve on Sunday. For many players, Sunday’s roster cuts marked…...

Memphis Will Run All Over Ole Miss: DraftKings Week 1 CFB DFS GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season continues with 10 games in DraftKings’ main slate. Toledo at Kentucky (-12), Over/Under: 62 — 12 p.m. ET Mississippi State (-20) vs. Louisiana, Over/Under: 60 — 12 p.m. ET Ole Miss at Memphis (-5), Over/Under: 66 — 12 p.m. ET East Carolina at North Carolina State…...

Fantasy WR Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production…....

Andrew Luck’s Retirement Shouldn’t Affect Marlon Mack’s Fantasy Value

On Saturday evening, Andrew Luck shocked the sporting world by announcing his retirement. This news took everyone off guard, throwing active fantasy drafts into a frenzy as everyone scrambled to revise fantasy projections for the Colts’ skill position players. In the wake of Saturday’s news, Matt Jones published an excellent…...

Fantasy RB Tiers Based on My Passing Revolution and Game Script Series

Since joining RotoViz in July, I’ve published two long-form article series1 that examine fantasy football from a macro perspective. The first of those series focused on how the NFL passing revolution has changed the fantasy football landscape. The second series explored how season-long game script affects running back PPR production…....

Offensive Eruption in Honolulu: DraftKings CFB DFS Week 0 GPP Breakdown

The CFB DFS season kicks off this Saturday at 7pm ET with two games featured in DraftKings’ evening slate. Florida (-7.5) vs. Miami (FL), Over/Under: 47.5 — 7:00 pm ET Arizona (-11) at Hawai’i, Over/Under: 74 — 10:30 pm ET Matchups at a Glance Here’s a quick layman’s guide for…...

Jaylen Samuels May Be the Biggest Winner from Antonio Brown’s Departure in Pittsburgh

Antonio Brown’s decision to force himself out of Pittsburgh leaves a gaping 150-plus target void among the Steelers receiving corps. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has consistently ranked among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses, so we know those targets are going to be redistributed somehow. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the…...

With Kenyan Drake In a Walking Boot, You Have to Buy Kalen Ballage Before It’s Too Late

Kenyan Drake sustained a right foot injury during practice on Tuesday, August 13, and was seen in in a walking boot on Wednesday. In Drake’s absence, Kalen Ballage has an expanded opportunity for first-team reps and has already been making waves on social media. Kalen Ballage is coming.pic.twitter.com/5S8ECruhTM — FFcouchcoach ⚖️…...

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