Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

Author Archive

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Where the Draft Is Won: 15 Middle Round Targets

There’s no question that staying healthy is a key to fantasy success, and that timely free agent pickups can occasionally be worth as much or more than a first round pick. But consistent fantasy champions have one characteristic in common. They dominate their leaguemates in Rounds 6 through 10. To win these all-important stanzas, you must have the courage to take swings at Breakout RBs…...

The Contrarian: 5 RotoViz Favorites on My Do Not Draft List

Whenever I write a piece like this, I always stipulate that I’m wrong a lot. I usually try to spin it that there is even a value to being wrong, if you’re wrong in the right ways.((I think if you constantly buy high vol players and sell low vol players, you’ll end up with a tremendous winning percentage. But there are going to be plenty…...

The 7 Breakout RBs You Must Own in 2015

The No. 1 question about Zero RB is a simple one. Where do you find running backs? The NFL Draft. Rookies tend to be overvalued in fantasy, but inefficiencies in the draft process tend to balance that equation. Breakout RBs. I examined my process for finding breakout runners in Zero RB, Breakout Runners, and Having More Fun Drafting. In comparing my previous Zero RB breakout…...

Sam Bradford Will Throw 50 Touchdowns – 2015 Edition

A couple of years ago, Bryan Fontaine wrote an article that achieved a certain notoriety.[1]And I mean that mostly in terms of the word’s popular culture connotation with just a little bit of it’s actual definition mixed in. It was a great piece that looked at whether Sam Bradford could throw 50 touchdowns in 2013. I disagreed at the time and suggested Jared Cook and Bradford…...

RB Rankings: The Top 5 for 2015

In order to find the Top 5 running backs for 2015, I wanted to take advantage of the two main RotoViz apps used in projecting players. The Similarity Score app provides insight into the type of seasons we can expect from RBs of the same age, size, and production profile. This can be a very helpful check against narrative as our intuition is often deeply…...

3 Breakout WRs Who Won’t Break Out

In The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015, I looked at the pool of up-and-coming receivers from which this year’s league-winners will likely be drawn. In that article I also explain why Dominator Rating, Age, Freak Score, Vertical Leap, Rookie Relative Yards Per Attempt, and Rookie Fantasy Points are the key components to predicting a breakout. Last year my Breakout WRs didn’t all…...

Is Jordan Taylor a Better Prospect Than Cody Latimer?

No. That’s a pretty simple answer, but it may tell us something about the two players that the question even occurred to me (or anyone). Taylor’s name popped in my memory after seeing a Rotoworld blurb that referenced an article on the Broncos official site. From Rotoworld: Broncos UDFA WR Jordan Taylor reportedly made a “massive impression” during Organized Team Activities. 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds with 4.52 wheels,…...

The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015

Breakout WRs are frequently the league-winning players in fantasy football since they’re an important part of both a Zero RB and a RB-RB approach. In 2013 RotoViz helped pick Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery, and that led to some pretty crazy results. The big winner in 2014 was DeAndre Hopkins. While 2015 doesn’t have a no-brainer selection in terms of both profile and price, the…...

Alex Smith Probably Isn’t Tom Brady Circa 2007, But He Might Be Closer Than You Think

A year ago, I wrote an ill-fated Banana Stand article half-seriously projecting a Tom Brady 2007 style breakout for Alex Smith. I should probably be embarrassed by that piece, but admitting you like Alex Smith is a little like advertising your bad dynasty trades. I’d rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong ones, as the former should lead to much…...

Eddie Lacy Should Be The No. 1 Pick in 2015

I’ve been using the various RotoViz apps to research RBs as I prepare for my first serious drafts of 2015. One of the biggest surprises is the way in which our Projection Machine rankings are down on Eddie Lacy. Frequent readers will know that I was not a big fan of Lacy heading into the 2013 Draft. I was wrong. Being responsive to new information…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 1 to 5

We began with the candidates ranked No. 15 through No. 11. In that article I presented an evidence-based methodology for finding RB gems in the middle and late rounds. We then continued our countdown with No. 10 through No. 6 and found three rookies with a chance to pay immediate dividends. As we finish today with the final five, we’ll end up with three teams…...

Locating the 5 Highest Upside Receivers for 2015

I like to build my draft board taking into account a variety of evidence-based approaches. In trying to determine picks at the very top of the draft, this means making sure as much evidence as possible points in the same direction. For this study, I wanted to use the RotoViz apps to discover which receivers had the highest upside. As a simple means of identifying…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 6-10

We began with the Zero RB candidates ranked 11 to 15. If you’re familiar with the methodology, skip the intro. At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 11-15

At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach to consistently land late round starters at the running back position. A few of the key components: Target rookies. Target…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers for 2015: No. 1-5

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 6-10

Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant. What constitutes a deep roster…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 11-15

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 7

  As I mentioned in the introduction for Round 5, the RDL has as least 770 players rostered at all times. It’s vitally important not to waste even late round picks. The expected value of late rounders may be fairly low, but that doesn’t mean you can’t select players with a combination of youth, athleticism, and production. In fact, Round 7 saw the selection of…...

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 6

  The PFF Fantasy rookie draft began yesterday morning, and we should reach this area of the draft by the weekend. Putting this project together has helped my preparation immensely, and I hope there’s been at least some value for readers as well. Almost everyone in your draft will have familiarity with the first round guys. Although the hit rates are low in the late…...

Where the Draft Is Won: 15 Middle Round Targets

There’s no question that staying healthy is a key to fantasy success, and that timely free agent pickups can occasionally be worth as much or more than a first round pick. But consistent fantasy champions have one characteristic in common. They dominate their leaguemates in Rounds 6 through 10. To win these all-important stanzas, you must have the courage to take swings at Breakout RBs…...

The Contrarian: 5 RotoViz Favorites on My Do Not Draft List

Whenever I write a piece like this, I always stipulate that I’m wrong a lot. I usually try to spin it that there is even a value to being wrong, if you’re wrong in the right ways.((I think if you constantly buy high vol players and sell low vol players, you’ll end up with a tremendous winning percentage. But there are going to be plenty…...

The 7 Breakout RBs You Must Own in 2015

The No. 1 question about Zero RB is a simple one. Where do you find running backs? The NFL Draft. Rookies tend to be overvalued in fantasy, but inefficiencies in the draft process tend to balance that equation. Breakout RBs. I examined my process for finding breakout runners in Zero RB, Breakout Runners, and Having More Fun Drafting. In comparing my previous Zero RB breakout…...

Sam Bradford Will Throw 50 Touchdowns – 2015 Edition

A couple of years ago, Bryan Fontaine wrote an article that achieved a certain notoriety.[1]And I mean that mostly in terms of the word’s popular culture connotation with just a little bit of it’s actual definition mixed in. It was a great piece that looked at whether Sam Bradford could throw 50 touchdowns in 2013. I disagreed at the time and suggested Jared Cook and Bradford…...

RB Rankings: The Top 5 for 2015

In order to find the Top 5 running backs for 2015, I wanted to take advantage of the two main RotoViz apps used in projecting players. The Similarity Score app provides insight into the type of seasons we can expect from RBs of the same age, size, and production profile. This can be a very helpful check against narrative as our intuition is often deeply…...

3 Breakout WRs Who Won’t Break Out

In The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015, I looked at the pool of up-and-coming receivers from which this year’s league-winners will likely be drawn. In that article I also explain why Dominator Rating, Age, Freak Score, Vertical Leap, Rookie Relative Yards Per Attempt, and Rookie Fantasy Points are the key components to predicting a breakout. Last year my Breakout WRs didn’t all…...

Is Jordan Taylor a Better Prospect Than Cody Latimer?

No. That’s a pretty simple answer, but it may tell us something about the two players that the question even occurred to me (or anyone). Taylor’s name popped in my memory after seeing a Rotoworld blurb that referenced an article on the Broncos official site. From Rotoworld: Broncos UDFA WR Jordan Taylor reportedly made a “massive impression” during Organized Team Activities. 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds with 4.52 wheels,…...

The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015

Breakout WRs are frequently the league-winning players in fantasy football since they’re an important part of both a Zero RB and a RB-RB approach. In 2013 RotoViz helped pick Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery, and that led to some pretty crazy results. The big winner in 2014 was DeAndre Hopkins. While 2015 doesn’t have a no-brainer selection in terms of both profile and price, the…...

Alex Smith Probably Isn’t Tom Brady Circa 2007, But He Might Be Closer Than You Think

A year ago, I wrote an ill-fated Banana Stand article half-seriously projecting a Tom Brady 2007 style breakout for Alex Smith. I should probably be embarrassed by that piece, but admitting you like Alex Smith is a little like advertising your bad dynasty trades. I’d rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong ones, as the former should lead to much…...

Eddie Lacy Should Be The No. 1 Pick in 2015

I’ve been using the various RotoViz apps to research RBs as I prepare for my first serious drafts of 2015. One of the biggest surprises is the way in which our Projection Machine rankings are down on Eddie Lacy. Frequent readers will know that I was not a big fan of Lacy heading into the 2013 Draft. I was wrong. Being responsive to new information…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 1 to 5

We began with the candidates ranked No. 15 through No. 11. In that article I presented an evidence-based methodology for finding RB gems in the middle and late rounds. We then continued our countdown with No. 10 through No. 6 and found three rookies with a chance to pay immediate dividends. As we finish today with the final five, we’ll end up with three teams…...

Locating the 5 Highest Upside Receivers for 2015

I like to build my draft board taking into account a variety of evidence-based approaches. In trying to determine picks at the very top of the draft, this means making sure as much evidence as possible points in the same direction. For this study, I wanted to use the RotoViz apps to discover which receivers had the highest upside. As a simple means of identifying…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 6-10

We began with the Zero RB candidates ranked 11 to 15. If you’re familiar with the methodology, skip the intro. At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 11-15

At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach to consistently land late round starters at the running back position. A few of the key components: Target rookies. Target…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers for 2015: No. 1-5

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 6-10

Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant. What constitutes a deep roster…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 11-15

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 7

  As I mentioned in the introduction for Round 5, the RDL has as least 770 players rostered at all times. It’s vitally important not to waste even late round picks. The expected value of late rounders may be fairly low, but that doesn’t mean you can’t select players with a combination of youth, athleticism, and production. In fact, Round 7 saw the selection of…...

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 6

  The PFF Fantasy rookie draft began yesterday morning, and we should reach this area of the draft by the weekend. Putting this project together has helped my preparation immensely, and I hope there’s been at least some value for readers as well. Almost everyone in your draft will have familiarity with the first round guys. Although the hit rates are low in the late…...

Where the Draft Is Won: 15 Middle Round Targets

There’s no question that staying healthy is a key to fantasy success, and that timely free agent pickups can occasionally be worth as much or more than a first round pick. But consistent fantasy champions have one characteristic in common. They dominate their leaguemates in Rounds 6 through 10. To win these all-important stanzas, you must have the courage to take swings at Breakout RBs…...

The Contrarian: 5 RotoViz Favorites on My Do Not Draft List

Whenever I write a piece like this, I always stipulate that I’m wrong a lot. I usually try to spin it that there is even a value to being wrong, if you’re wrong in the right ways.((I think if you constantly buy high vol players and sell low vol players, you’ll end up with a tremendous winning percentage. But there are going to be plenty…...

The 7 Breakout RBs You Must Own in 2015

The No. 1 question about Zero RB is a simple one. Where do you find running backs? The NFL Draft. Rookies tend to be overvalued in fantasy, but inefficiencies in the draft process tend to balance that equation. Breakout RBs. I examined my process for finding breakout runners in Zero RB, Breakout Runners, and Having More Fun Drafting. In comparing my previous Zero RB breakout…...

Sam Bradford Will Throw 50 Touchdowns – 2015 Edition

A couple of years ago, Bryan Fontaine wrote an article that achieved a certain notoriety.[1]And I mean that mostly in terms of the word’s popular culture connotation with just a little bit of it’s actual definition mixed in. It was a great piece that looked at whether Sam Bradford could throw 50 touchdowns in 2013. I disagreed at the time and suggested Jared Cook and Bradford…...

RB Rankings: The Top 5 for 2015

In order to find the Top 5 running backs for 2015, I wanted to take advantage of the two main RotoViz apps used in projecting players. The Similarity Score app provides insight into the type of seasons we can expect from RBs of the same age, size, and production profile. This can be a very helpful check against narrative as our intuition is often deeply…...

3 Breakout WRs Who Won’t Break Out

In The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015, I looked at the pool of up-and-coming receivers from which this year’s league-winners will likely be drawn. In that article I also explain why Dominator Rating, Age, Freak Score, Vertical Leap, Rookie Relative Yards Per Attempt, and Rookie Fantasy Points are the key components to predicting a breakout. Last year my Breakout WRs didn’t all…...

Is Jordan Taylor a Better Prospect Than Cody Latimer?

No. That’s a pretty simple answer, but it may tell us something about the two players that the question even occurred to me (or anyone). Taylor’s name popped in my memory after seeing a Rotoworld blurb that referenced an article on the Broncos official site. From Rotoworld: Broncos UDFA WR Jordan Taylor reportedly made a “massive impression” during Organized Team Activities. 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds with 4.52 wheels,…...

The 8 Breakout WRs You Must Own in 2015

Breakout WRs are frequently the league-winning players in fantasy football since they’re an important part of both a Zero RB and a RB-RB approach. In 2013 RotoViz helped pick Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery, and that led to some pretty crazy results. The big winner in 2014 was DeAndre Hopkins. While 2015 doesn’t have a no-brainer selection in terms of both profile and price, the…...

Alex Smith Probably Isn’t Tom Brady Circa 2007, But He Might Be Closer Than You Think

A year ago, I wrote an ill-fated Banana Stand article half-seriously projecting a Tom Brady 2007 style breakout for Alex Smith. I should probably be embarrassed by that piece, but admitting you like Alex Smith is a little like advertising your bad dynasty trades. I’d rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong ones, as the former should lead to much…...

Eddie Lacy Should Be The No. 1 Pick in 2015

I’ve been using the various RotoViz apps to research RBs as I prepare for my first serious drafts of 2015. One of the biggest surprises is the way in which our Projection Machine rankings are down on Eddie Lacy. Frequent readers will know that I was not a big fan of Lacy heading into the 2013 Draft. I was wrong. Being responsive to new information…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 1 to 5

We began with the candidates ranked No. 15 through No. 11. In that article I presented an evidence-based methodology for finding RB gems in the middle and late rounds. We then continued our countdown with No. 10 through No. 6 and found three rookies with a chance to pay immediate dividends. As we finish today with the final five, we’ll end up with three teams…...

Locating the 5 Highest Upside Receivers for 2015

I like to build my draft board taking into account a variety of evidence-based approaches. In trying to determine picks at the very top of the draft, this means making sure as much evidence as possible points in the same direction. For this study, I wanted to use the RotoViz apps to discover which receivers had the highest upside. As a simple means of identifying…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 6-10

We began with the Zero RB candidates ranked 11 to 15. If you’re familiar with the methodology, skip the intro. At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach…...

Top 15 Zero RB Candidates: No. 11-15

At this point many fantasy players are familiar with Zero RB, but avoiding those early round land mines is meaningless without a method for otherwise filling the position. In last April’s Zero RB, Breakout Stars, and Having More Fun Drafting, I explained how to use an evidence-based approach to consistently land late round starters at the running back position. A few of the key components: Target rookies. Target…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers for 2015: No. 1-5

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 6-10

Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant. What constitutes a deep roster…...

Top 15 Dynasty Deep Sleepers: No. 11-15

  Although RotoViz will provide a wealth of free agency material during the regular season, winning waivers begins during the summer doldrums. Understanding a player’s background and profile now can help fend off emotional moves in Week 4. It can also help you continue to build a strong bottom half of the roster before injuries strike or a player becomes relevant…....

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 7

  As I mentioned in the introduction for Round 5, the RDL has as least 770 players rostered at all times. It’s vitally important not to waste even late round picks. The expected value of late rounders may be fairly low, but that doesn’t mean you can’t select players with a combination of youth, athleticism, and production. In fact, Round 7 saw the selection of…...

RotoViz Dynasty League: Rookie Draft Round 6

  The PFF Fantasy rookie draft began yesterday morning, and we should reach this area of the draft by the weekend. Putting this project together has helped my preparation immensely, and I hope there’s been at least some value for readers as well. Almost everyone in your draft will have familiarity with the first round guys. Although the hit rates are low in the late…...

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