In The Wrong Read, No. 76, Blair Andrews dives into the definition of a breakout season for collegiate WR prospects and suggests a path for improving the metric. We’ve long defined a wide receiver breakout as a player’s first season in which they achieve a 30% dominator rating. While that has proven to be among the most accurate and discerning measures of college breakouts, it’s…...

Shawn Siegele breaks down the 2023 rookie landscape ahead of the NFL draft and explains why he’s departing from the mainstream with three of his early selections. If you’ve been listening to our NFL draft series on RotoViz Overtime with fantastic guests like Travis May and Patrick Kerrane (with more heavy hitters to come), you know I’ve been teasing this series where I dive into…...

Stefan Lako looks at one of the most controversial NFL draft prospects and explains why Will Levis has dire red flags you must consider before grabbing him in rookie drafts. The NFL draft is just weeks away and people are calling their shots on who will be the next Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, and Justin Jefferson. And on the other side of that equation we…...

Heading into the 2021 draft, Ja’Marr Chase was lauded by many as one of the best wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL in a decade. He was the highest-ranked prospect in our Rookie Guide that season and sat inside our top 20 dynasty rankings prior to the NFL Draft. Why were we, and many others, so optimistic about his future? It was pretty simple…....

Draft age is one of the most important metrics when evaluating prospects, at all positions. Across the board we see that players who are drafted at a younger age are more successful at nearly every stage of their careers, and are successful for longer than their peers that were drafted at an older age. There are few prospect metrics that have more predictive power than…...

With the combine in the rear-view mirror, 2023 NFL prospect turn their focus to their college team’s pro day. Pro days give players the opportunity to perform in front of scouts at their own facilities. Most posted times are unofficial. However, players can improve upon NFL combine results and showcase their skills in position drills. Let’s look at how each of the top prospects performed…...

Earlier this week I published the backfield dominator ratings (BDR) for the 2023 running back class. Chase Brown ranked No. 4 in BDR, thanks in large part to the number of opportunities he saw in Illinois’ offense. He had at least 20 touches and surpassed 100 total yards in every single game. Opponent RuAtts RuYds RuTDs RuAttMS RuYdMS Recs ReYds ReTDs Touches TotalYds Wyoming 19…...

Production is nearly always undervalued at the running back position. In part that’s because it’s not always the easiest thing to measure. Yes, we can easily look at the leaderboards in rushing and receiving yards and see who compiled the biggest numbers. But doing so leaves out a lot of context. For one thing, it doesn’t tell us much about a player’s offensive environment? Was…...

It’s hard not to love explosive running backs – players who can take a handoff, find a hole, juke past a linebacker, and race to the end zone. These are the type of plays that circle through our minds as we think about how a player’s skill set will translate to the NFL. There’s no denying that they’re exciting, but if they don’t translate to…...

Jalin Hyatt is widely expected to be taken in the first round of the reality draft. The speed and explosiveness he displayed at the combine only solidifies his draft stock. Yet he routinely slips to the second round of dynasty rookie mock drafts. Are NFL GMs overvaluing Hyatt’s final season production and tested athleticism? Or are fantasy GMs undervaluing Hyatt’s on-field abilities? The Box Score…...

The rookie class starts to come into focus after another thrilling NFL combine. Shawn Siegele projects the first round of 2023 superflex drafts. If you’re anything like me, the combine has your dynasty juices really flowing and you’re making a flurry of trades ahead of the upcoming NFL draft. My co-managers and I executed a couple of blockbusters in the FFPC’s RotoViz TriFlex format over…...

As a card-carrying member of the Jamaal Charles Super-Fan Club, it seems almost blasphemous to mention a 2022 rookie RB as a possible comparison to the former Chiefs great. Charles lived in the second level, seemingly never touched before gaining 5 yards. Once he got out in the open, it was usually a house call as few could keep up with his 4.38 speed. However,…...

How much does draft capital matter for players, particularly the running back position? In recent seasons, an undrafted player or late-round option in the NFL Draft exceeds expectations as a rookie. Blair has some research on the most predictive running back metrics to help us with that question. Sometimes a player earns volume via injuries or fitting better into an offense regardless of draft capital…....

Shawn Siegele looks at the WR Freak Scores for a 2023 class that could really use some quality sleepers. The 2023 NFL draft sports a bevy of dynamic small receivers. But does it offer game-breaking alphas? Two of the three stars opted not to run a 40 but left us with a mouthwatering sample of their potential star power. Quentin Johnston jumped 40.5 inches in…...

Bjorn Yang-Vaernet reviews the NFL combine results for the 2023 running back class and shares the players that helped or hurt themselves ahead of the NFL Draft. Thankfully the NFL combine, or as Blair called the event in his wide receiver combine winners and losers article, the “annual underwear Olympics,” is finally here. The period of time between the Super Bowl in February and the…...