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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Predicting Future NFL Draft Capital for Wide Receivers

First off, predicting the NFL Draft pick by pick is truly impossible. That’s not what we’re trying to do here. When it comes to fantasy football we like to see wide receivers drafted in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL Draft. Those receivers typically produce fantasy points at a much higher rate than those drafted later or not at all. “Okay, cool. Yeah. Draft capital matters. But how in the world do we actually predict future NFL Draft capital? And why does that matter?” Great questions! Last year I introduced a new production metric called the Adjusted Production Index. It’s a…...

Big Surprises in the Live and Loaded Black Crown Rookie Draft: Breaking Down All 4 Rounds of the Superflex Spectacle

Last night, Curtis Patrick held the inaugural rookie draft for the Black Crown Dynasty League live on zoom. It was a raucous and festive occasion with many of my favorite writers in the dynasty community – T.J. Calkins, Ryan McDowell, Patrick Kerrane, J.J. Zachariason, Rich Hribar, Matthew Freedman, Scott Barrett, Tyler Buecher, Danny Kelly, and John Daigle. This is a Superflex, TE Premium league with multiple flexes to fill out the 11 starting spots. The recent startup included a fun quirk where drafters were able to select a rookie pick instead of a veteran. In a risky, high-upside approach meant…...

Re-Selecting Every Rookie Draft of the Last 5 Years and Why Going Through the Exercise Might Change the Way You Draft

Shawn Siegele goes through the last five rookie drafts and explores what each draft would look like if it took place today. It’s always fun to go back and ask the question What if? It can also help us calibrate our expectations for the future. What should be the core of our dynasty startup teams? What is the hit rate for rookie picks? How well do rookies hold trade value? Last week, I used the Dynasty ADP tool to investigate whether rookie buzz created an opening to buy veteran RBs. Today, we’ll use it to examine each of the last…...

3 Deep Sleepers Who Could Break Into Your Starting Lineup

Startup drafts can get long and tedious once you hit a certain point. The eight-hour timer between picks, the endless negotiating and postering for every selection, and the seemingly fewer options the deeper you go. You may find yourself taking guys to keep things moving after a while. Here’s something that we all know to be true but often find hard to remember and put into practice: there are values found in even the latest rounds. Identifying players in promising situations who could offer potential starting value in a pinch can help win those heavy bye-week matchups or save you…...

The Adjusted Production Index: Top 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers

In case you missed everything else that RotoViz has ever done, production metrics matter when it comes to predicting future NFL success for wide receivers. However, finding what really matters, and how much it matters is tough. So, last year I took a look at some of the most impactful production variables and combined them to create what I call the Adjusted Production Index. It’s simple. It combines just three production variables to tell a more complete story of a player’s overall production profile. We’re all (for the most part) familiar with Dominator Rating; the simple combination of receiving yardage…...

Is This Wide Receiver Poised To Be The Next Chris Godwin?

As the dust has settled following the NFL Draft and the bulk of free agency, we can start to project how we think players and offenses will look heading into next season. It’s a tedious exercise, and much can (and likely will) change between now and the fall. However, it provides a chance to uncover some potential values that can be acquired below cost. Last season, Chris Godwin found himself in a unique situation. Not having reached the breakout threshold for wide receivers (200 PPR points) heading into his third season, many wondered if he was ready to make the…...

The 10 Most Undervalued Players in Dynasty Startups Are All Discounted By Multiple Rounds

As startups explode in the aftermath of the NFL Draft, this is the perfect time to develop your dynasty strategy for 2020. Beyond the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide and our deep research on the best players and tactics in rookie drafts, we’ve also been focusing on how to build your overall roster. Curtis Patrick’s Dynasty Startup Cheat Sheet helps you build the perfect core by selecting those players with the best age/ranking profile relative to ADP. In today’s exercise, we’ll use the RotoViz tools to find the most extreme startup values. Our partners at the FFPC host an excellent…...

Does Post-Draft Hype Provide a Dynasty Buying Opportunity for Veteran RBs?

The 2020 NFL Draft created more carnage than usual at the RB position. Teams selected 10 running backs in the first 100 picks, more than any other draft in the last five years. And it’s not like there were a lot of wide open jobs. Only the Miami Dolphins – who didn’t select an early RB but traded for Matt Breida – appeared to have a clear starting role available. Does all of the hype surrounding the NFL Draft provide a window to buy veteran RBs in dynasty? This is a complicated question, but we can begin with one simple…...

7 Veteran Sleepers to Supercharge Your Drafts: Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020

In Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020, Curtis Patrick unveils a handful of veteran late-round picks to target in dynasty startup drafts and best ball drafts. In this two-part miniseries, I’ll review a handful of players who have huge ceilings in 2020 but aren’t being drafted like it. In this first installment, I’m shining the spotlight on discounted veterans. There are multiple levels of “sleepers” and people may choose to define them differently, but regardless of specific value or performance criteria, these are players who induce yawns when their names are called in any fantasy football draft. In this piece, they fall…...

Navigating Treacherous 2020 Rookie Drafts: Player Targets and Trade Options for Every Pick in Round 1

The 2020 rookie draft season is the craziest in recent memory. Player values were scrambled by an entertaining reality event. Generational prospect Jonathan Taylor fell to No. 41 overall and landed with a team that has both an established young starter and one of the better receiving backs. By contrast, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first back off the board into a dream landing spot. The three other big-name RBs landed with the teams that ranked No. 30, No. 31, and No. 32 in receiving Expected Points to the backs. That’s not a misprint or exaggeration. They were literally the three…...

Predicting Future NFL Draft Capital for Wide Receivers

First off, predicting the NFL Draft pick by pick is truly impossible. That’s not what we’re trying to do here. When it comes to fantasy football we like to see wide receivers drafted in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL Draft. Those receivers typically produce fantasy points at a much higher rate than those drafted later or not at all. “Okay, cool. Yeah. Draft capital matters. But how in the world do we actually predict future NFL Draft capital? And why does that matter?” Great questions! Last year I introduced a new production metric called the Adjusted Production Index. It’s a…...

Big Surprises in the Live and Loaded Black Crown Rookie Draft: Breaking Down All 4 Rounds of the Superflex Spectacle

Last night, Curtis Patrick held the inaugural rookie draft for the Black Crown Dynasty League live on zoom. It was a raucous and festive occasion with many of my favorite writers in the dynasty community – T.J. Calkins, Ryan McDowell, Patrick Kerrane, J.J. Zachariason, Rich Hribar, Matthew Freedman, Scott Barrett, Tyler Buecher, Danny Kelly, and John Daigle. This is a Superflex, TE Premium league with multiple flexes to fill out the 11 starting spots. The recent startup included a fun quirk where drafters were able to select a rookie pick instead of a veteran. In a risky, high-upside approach meant…...

Re-Selecting Every Rookie Draft of the Last 5 Years and Why Going Through the Exercise Might Change the Way You Draft

Shawn Siegele goes through the last five rookie drafts and explores what each draft would look like if it took place today. It’s always fun to go back and ask the question What if? It can also help us calibrate our expectations for the future. What should be the core of our dynasty startup teams? What is the hit rate for rookie picks? How well do rookies hold trade value? Last week, I used the Dynasty ADP tool to investigate whether rookie buzz created an opening to buy veteran RBs. Today, we’ll use it to examine each of the last…...

3 Deep Sleepers Who Could Break Into Your Starting Lineup

Startup drafts can get long and tedious once you hit a certain point. The eight-hour timer between picks, the endless negotiating and postering for every selection, and the seemingly fewer options the deeper you go. You may find yourself taking guys to keep things moving after a while. Here’s something that we all know to be true but often find hard to remember and put into practice: there are values found in even the latest rounds. Identifying players in promising situations who could offer potential starting value in a pinch can help win those heavy bye-week matchups or save you…...

The Adjusted Production Index: Top 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers

In case you missed everything else that RotoViz has ever done, production metrics matter when it comes to predicting future NFL success for wide receivers. However, finding what really matters, and how much it matters is tough. So, last year I took a look at some of the most impactful production variables and combined them to create what I call the Adjusted Production Index. It’s simple. It combines just three production variables to tell a more complete story of a player’s overall production profile. We’re all (for the most part) familiar with Dominator Rating; the simple combination of receiving yardage…...

Is This Wide Receiver Poised To Be The Next Chris Godwin?

As the dust has settled following the NFL Draft and the bulk of free agency, we can start to project how we think players and offenses will look heading into next season. It’s a tedious exercise, and much can (and likely will) change between now and the fall. However, it provides a chance to uncover some potential values that can be acquired below cost. Last season, Chris Godwin found himself in a unique situation. Not having reached the breakout threshold for wide receivers (200 PPR points) heading into his third season, many wondered if he was ready to make the…...

The 10 Most Undervalued Players in Dynasty Startups Are All Discounted By Multiple Rounds

As startups explode in the aftermath of the NFL Draft, this is the perfect time to develop your dynasty strategy for 2020. Beyond the Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide and our deep research on the best players and tactics in rookie drafts, we’ve also been focusing on how to build your overall roster. Curtis Patrick’s Dynasty Startup Cheat Sheet helps you build the perfect core by selecting those players with the best age/ranking profile relative to ADP. In today’s exercise, we’ll use the RotoViz tools to find the most extreme startup values. Our partners at the FFPC host an excellent…...

Does Post-Draft Hype Provide a Dynasty Buying Opportunity for Veteran RBs?

The 2020 NFL Draft created more carnage than usual at the RB position. Teams selected 10 running backs in the first 100 picks, more than any other draft in the last five years. And it’s not like there were a lot of wide open jobs. Only the Miami Dolphins – who didn’t select an early RB but traded for Matt Breida – appeared to have a clear starting role available. Does all of the hype surrounding the NFL Draft provide a window to buy veteran RBs in dynasty? This is a complicated question, but we can begin with one simple…...

7 Veteran Sleepers to Supercharge Your Drafts: Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020

In Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020, Curtis Patrick unveils a handful of veteran late-round picks to target in dynasty startup drafts and best ball drafts. In this two-part miniseries, I’ll review a handful of players who have huge ceilings in 2020 but aren’t being drafted like it. In this first installment, I’m shining the spotlight on discounted veterans. There are multiple levels of “sleepers” and people may choose to define them differently, but regardless of specific value or performance criteria, these are players who induce yawns when their names are called in any fantasy football draft. In this piece, they fall…...

Navigating Treacherous 2020 Rookie Drafts: Player Targets and Trade Options for Every Pick in Round 1

The 2020 rookie draft season is the craziest in recent memory. Player values were scrambled by an entertaining reality event. Generational prospect Jonathan Taylor fell to No. 41 overall and landed with a team that has both an established young starter and one of the better receiving backs. By contrast, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first back off the board into a dream landing spot. The three other big-name RBs landed with the teams that ranked No. 30, No. 31, and No. 32 in receiving Expected Points to the backs. That’s not a misprint or exaggeration. They were literally the three…...

Predicting Future NFL Draft Capital for Wide Receivers

First off, predicting the NFL Draft pick by pick is truly impossible. That’s not what we’re trying to do here. When it comes to fantasy football we like to see wide receivers drafted in Rounds 1-3 of the NFL Draft. Those receivers typically produce fantasy points at a much higher…...

3 Deep Sleepers Who Could Break Into Your Starting Lineup

Startup drafts can get long and tedious once you hit a certain point. The eight-hour timer between picks, the endless negotiating and postering for every selection, and the seemingly fewer options the deeper you go. You may find yourself taking guys to keep things moving after a while. Here’s something…...

The Adjusted Production Index: Top 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers

In case you missed everything else that RotoViz has ever done, production metrics matter when it comes to predicting future NFL success for wide receivers. However, finding what really matters, and how much it matters is tough. So, last year I took a look at some of the most impactful…...

Is This Wide Receiver Poised To Be The Next Chris Godwin?

As the dust has settled following the NFL Draft and the bulk of free agency, we can start to project how we think players and offenses will look heading into next season. It’s a tedious exercise, and much can (and likely will) change between now and the fall. However, it…...

7 Veteran Sleepers to Supercharge Your Drafts: Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020

In Fantasy Football Sleepers 2020, Curtis Patrick unveils a handful of veteran late-round picks to target in dynasty startup drafts and best ball drafts. In this two-part miniseries, I’ll review a handful of players who have huge ceilings in 2020 but aren’t being drafted like it. In this first installment,…...

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