As an analyst one of the things that happens every year is that you talk yourself into a player – maybe you say that Martavis Bryant should be on every team – and then you don’t ever end up drafting that player. It’s not willful. You’re not writing pieces pumping up players and then avoiding them because screw the readers. It’s more accidental and also because…...

IDP 2014 was the year of the season-ending injury to three-down linebackers. During the offseason I’ve been analyzing how to play all of these LB injuries in redrafts. At first I thought fading all of the injured players could be the strategy, but when the ADP data started to roll in I took a step back and realized some incredible injury discounts were being created…....

Roy Helu has always been an interesting name in fantasy football drafts due to his physical tools and fantastic rate stats, but he’s been mired in a secondary role behind Alfred Morris for the last few seasons. Heath Krueger makes a very compelling argument for why he’s preferable to Latavius Murray at their respective prices, and his piece is definitely worth a read. He has…...

From The Editors: We recently hired Josh Klein to write a weekly Friday column which was light on statistics, medium on advice, heavy on nonsense, and heavier on terrible jokes which would make our incredibly smart and easily cajoled readers roll their collective eyes. So far, he’s wasted almost three thousand words over two columns and recommended one player; we are pretty sure it’s Titans QB…...

From Sports World Report: Meanwhile, the run game looked as unimpressive as the quarterback game. The Browns continue to deal with uncertainty in Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West who have yet to capitalize off the momentum of last year. Both second-year pros are struggling to make an impact which is leading the Browns to consider free agent options. According to West, he would welcome Ray…...

We finally made it to the fourth — and final[1]Maybe — article in this visually stimulating efficiency vs. opportunity journey. Today, I’m focusing on the tight end position — you know, the position otherwise known as Rob Gronkowski and then the rest of “the guys.” Never before have we seen so much talent and athleticism at the position and I, for one, am excited to watch…...

“Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned” -W. Congreve This article is part of an ongoing series that explores ideas related to exploiting recency bias. The first concept, “chasing the dragon,” applies to Rob Gronkowski and Andrew Luck and can be found here. If players outperform their ADPs significantly, it creates a situation where they are drafted near their ceilings in the following year because everyone…...

Over at Pro Football Focus, they recently simplified their grading system in an attempt to determine how good a player is right now,[1]That is, recent performance is weighted more heavily. on a scale of 1-100. Going into the 2015 season, they evaluate Anquan Boldin as the ninth best wide receiver in the NFL. To be clear, this is not a fantasy football ranking system; their ranks…...

Last year a number of the writers on the site were proponents of Kelvin Benjamin even though he didn’t pass certain metric thresholds that we typically like. But in trying to sort the signal out from the noise I think several of us focused on the opportunity in Carolina and Benjamin’s touchdown upside as factors that could make him very valuable. But each season brings…...

With fantasy football drafts in full swing, let’s use the ADP Arbitrage App to find some wide receiver bargains. I’ll use some simple screens – weight, targets, and yards per target – to identify cheaper options to higher-drafted players. Rueben Randle / Cecil Shorts If you just search RotoViz for Rueben Randle, you’ll find all our love letters. I’m on board again this year. He finished last year…...

@14TeamMocker might be the only C.J. Anderson denier left. He doesn’t think Anderson is worth his ADP cost of RB8, 13th overall.[1]ADP data courtesy of FantasyPros 8/17/15 Heith Krueger is going to attempt to shut him up, and get him to change his mind, before the season begins and it officially becomes too late. @14TeamMocker Peyton Manning was undeniably injured at the end of last…...

Don’t look now, but the NFL season is almost here. With fantasy football drafts in full swing, let’s use the ADP Arbitrage App to find some running back bargains. I’ll use some simple screens – weight, targets, and attempts – to identify cheaper options to higher-drafted players. Giovani Bernard Concerned about what the addition of Chris Johnson means for Andre Ellington? Worried about a Jamaal Charles decline? Not sold on Justin Forsett…...

The Contingency Plan is a series I developed after listening to the Numbers Game Podcast with Kevin Cole and Matthew Freedman. If this is your first time checking it out, you should read the maiden voyage piece to get yourself acquainted with exactly what it is I am trying to do. Today, I’ll look at the AFC North. Pittsburgh Steelers The Scenario Le’Veon Bell comes back from his…...

Kelvin Benjamin Kelvin Benjamin goes down with an injury when running a route, doesn't look good. pic.twitter.com/e4VOTjEW5A — Jeff Zell (@Jeff_Zell) August 19, 2015 Wednesday morning Kelvin Benjamin was carted off the practice field after experiencing a non-contact left knee injury. If the injury is serious, this could potentially lower the upside of Cam Newton. The Panthers WR corp would be in shambles in the absence of…...

I’ve been playing in high-stakes fantasy football leagues for a dozen years now, first in the defunct World Championship of Fantasy Football and for the last several years, the Fantasy Football Players Championship. I’ve played with several co-managers over all those years, which helps not only with the financing but with decision-making. The basic idea is that you invest a lot more than you normally…...

Brandon Coleman This is not another “Brandon Coleman is a deep sleeper candidate” blurb. James White Is in the lead for the Patriots’ third-down running back role. Although I didn’t point him out specifically, he’s an uber cheap acquisition with a fantasy ADP profile that suggests possible relevance this season. I know, New England’s backfield is difficult to project. But it also has value, and…...

Last offseason I identified seven big-bodied wide receivers to target in the late rounds of drafts. As expected, most were complete whiffs.[1]I explicitly excluded Brandon LaFell because I am an idiot sometimes. But I also managed to identify Brian Quick, who seemed to be on pace to breakout before a shoulder injury, Charles Johnson, as well as Kenny Britt, who had a respectable 748 receiving yards. Overall, I think…...

If you ever played in a High Stakes league you may have noticed a different dynamic from your home or office league. The competition actually cares about beating you – unlike the guy in the next cubicle who drafted a kicker in the eighth round. I reference High Stakes because there’s generally less margin of error in a league where you can expect all owners…...