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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Targeting Tre Mason, Trade Winners, and Tight Ends

Tre Mason His value will rightfully plummet with the Rams’ selection of Todd Gurley, but I think there’s a case for trying to acquire him cheaply. Still recovering from an ACL injury, Gurley is unlikely to play in the first month of the season. Once he’s cleared to play, he’ll still have to demonstrate his ability to execute the playbook and handle pass protection (remember, pass…...

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I’m Not Sure What Breshad Perriman Is, But I Know That You Should Draft Him

When Breshad Perriman was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, I was filled with excitement. After all, this seemed like the fit I had been waiting for after months hours of waiting for an NFL team to select him. Then I saw this tweet from our fearless leader: GFL figuring Perriman out. pic.twitter.com/cjeuI6MQac — Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) May 1, 2015 Suddenly, I wasn’t sure what to…...

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The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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Targeting Tre Mason, Trade Winners, and Tight Ends

Tre Mason His value will rightfully plummet with the Rams’ selection of Todd Gurley, but I think there’s a case for trying to acquire him cheaply. Still recovering from an ACL injury, Gurley is unlikely to play in the first month of the season. Once he’s cleared to play, he’ll still have to demonstrate his ability to execute the playbook and handle pass protection (remember, pass…...

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I’m Not Sure What Breshad Perriman Is, But I Know That You Should Draft Him

When Breshad Perriman was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, I was filled with excitement. After all, this seemed like the fit I had been waiting for after months hours of waiting for an NFL team to select him. Then I saw this tweet from our fearless leader: GFL figuring Perriman out. pic.twitter.com/cjeuI6MQac — Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) May 1, 2015 Suddenly, I wasn’t sure what to…...

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The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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Targeting Tre Mason, Trade Winners, and Tight Ends

Tre Mason His value will rightfully plummet with the Rams’ selection of Todd Gurley, but I think there’s a case for trying to acquire him cheaply. Still recovering from an ACL injury, Gurley is unlikely to play in the first month of the season. Once he’s cleared to play, he’ll still have to demonstrate his ability to execute the playbook and handle pass protection (remember, pass…...

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I’m Not Sure What Breshad Perriman Is, But I Know That You Should Draft Him

When Breshad Perriman was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, I was filled with excitement. After all, this seemed like the fit I had been waiting for after months hours of waiting for an NFL team to select him. Then I saw this tweet from our fearless leader: GFL figuring Perriman out. pic.twitter.com/cjeuI6MQac — Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) May 1, 2015 Suddenly, I wasn’t sure what to…...

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The Eagles Should Trade for Johnny Manziel, Not Marcus Mariota

This post is really more about the implications of Fantasy Douche’s YOLO quarterback strategy than specifically Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel. But I think the choice between acquiring Mariota or Manziel is a good illustration of taking the traditional franchise QB path or going YOLO. For those who haven’t read any previous YOLO QB articles, here’s an explainer from PapaViz:… Membership Required You must be a member to access this...

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Demarco Murray and the Hidden Value of Special Teams Stats

Earlier this month I detailed the hidden value of college special teams stats for wide receiver prospects and how they might help us identify undervalued commodities. Perhaps unsurprisingly, special teams stats matter for running backs too. In a recent round of testing I solved for 24 different variables, including a mix of rush yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and receiving touchdowns and their per-game siblings over the…...

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Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs…...

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The Rundown: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, ADP Arbitrage, and More

    Brandon Marshall, LB  Marshall is recovering from Lisfranc surgery. This is a big deal for IDP players. A four to six month recovery period potentially keeps him out of training camp and jeopardizes the beginning of the season. Depending on severity and responsiveness to treatment, recovery outcomes are highly variable. Some, like Santonio Holmes, took a full year to return to action. Cedric Benson never played…...

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Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker

You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and…...

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