Dollars Per Opportunity: Week 12

jordan matthews 2017

Dollars per opportunity uses the RotoViz projections to highlight the week’s best DFS bargains. If you’d like to learn more about my methodology you can read the intro here.

Remember, you can access the full list of $/opp plays on Google Docs here. I’ll keep the sheet updated throughout the weekend as news trickles in and projections are updated; the plays in this article are based on projections as of Wednesday evening so you can have it for the Thanksgiving slate.

Week 11 Results

Cash Game Calls

  • QB: Kirk Cousins (375 paYDS, 3 paTD), Colin Kaepernick (206 paYDS, 2 paTD, 32 ruYDS) — 2 wins, 0 losses
  • RB: C.J. Prosise (2 REC, 81 totYDS, 1 totTD) — 1 win
  • WR: Cam Meredith (4 REC, 49 reYDS), Quinton Patton (2 REC, 17 reYDS) — 0 wins, 2 losses
  • TE: Martellus Bennett (1 REC, 14 reYDS), Julius Thomas (3 REC, 12 reYDS) — 0 wins, 2 losses

GPP Calls

  • QB: Russell Wilson (263 paYDS, 1 paTD, 1 reTD, 26 ruYDS) — 1 win
  • RB: Frank Gore (4 REC, 121 totYDS), Todd Gurley (76 totYDS, 1 totTD), Theo Riddick (8 REC, 83 totYDS) — 3 wins, 0 losses
  • WR: Allen Hurns (1 REC, 9 reYDS), Stefon Diggs (6 REC, 37 reYDS), Julian Edelman (8 REC, 77 reYDS, 1 reTD) — 1 wins, 2 losses
  • TE: Zach Miller (3 REC, 61 reYDS, 1 reTD), Gary Barnidge (2 REC, 23 reYDS, 1 reTD) — 2 wins, 0 losses

DFS Bargains for Week 12

Quarterbacks

For cash games the discussion begins with Derek Carr ($6,100 DK; $7,900 FD), who gets to face a vulnerable Panthers secondary and is projected for the fifth-highest opportunity score of the week. I’ll keep touting Colin Kaepernick ($5,700 DK; $7,200 FD) as long as the DFS sites continue to price him outside the top 12 at the position. In his five games this season, Kaepernick has finished as the QB13, QB16, QB9, QB6, and QB9.

For GPPs, Carson Wentz ($5,400 DK; $6,800 FD) projects very well from a $/opp standpoint as he’s priced like a borderline QB2 on both sites, but projected for the second-highest opportunity score. With Wendell Smallwood as their only healthy running back, the Eagles should be airing it out on Monday night against a weak Packers pass defense. My second GPP play is Russell Wilson ($6,700 DK; $7,500 FD) as the Seahawks look to be a pass-heavy offense for the second-half of the season. It’s the 2015 season all over again and, while he doesn’t have a very high projected opportunity score (26.8 ranks 14th), he faces a Tampa Bay defense that can be beat through the air.

Running Backs

While David Johnson ($8,900 DK; $9,500 FD) doesn’t project well from a $/opp perspective, you’re fading him in cash games at your own risk. That said, if you’re looking for more bang for your buck type plays, there are two that stand out to me. First, Melvin Gordon ($7,000 DK; $8,200 FD) should pick up where he left off prior to his bye week — we have him projected for the fourth-highest opportunity score and he’s priced outside the top five running backs this week so that’s actually a bargain price. My second cash game play is Jordan Howard ($5,300 DK; $6,800 FD), who should be in line for a major workload now that the Bears are down Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller, and Jay Cutler. Howard has our 10th-highest projected opportunity score, but priced more as an RB2, especially on DraftKings.

For GPPs, Rashad Jennings ($5,600 DK; $6,600 FD) is in a great spot despite the major price adjustment from last week. He’s projected for the fifth-highest opportunity score and comes in as our top $/opp value on FanDuel. His matchup vs. the Browns is probably the best you can ask for. Another great GPP option this week is Jonathan Stewart ($5,000 DK; $6,900 FD), who should see a lot of run against a bad Oakland run defense. We saw Lamar Miller (113 totYDS, 1 totTD) put up some big numbers vs. them last week and Stewart comes in with a top 12 opportunity score. If you’re looking for a cheap punt play at running back, Kenneth Dixon ($3,800 DK; $5,000 FD) is an intriguing option as he’s been trending up in terms of playing time, gets a nice matchup against the Bengals defense, and comes in as a top three $/opp value on both DFS sites.

Wide Receivers

When it comes to cash game plays, it’s best to shop between both sites for optimal pricing and there’s no better example than Julian Edelman ($6,800 DK; $6,400 FD). He’s priced as the WR13 on DraftKings, but WR28 on FanDuel, while his opportunity score ranks seventh on both sites. Obviously, you’ll want your cash game exposure to Edelman on FanDuel. Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000 DK; $7,200 FD), may be priced like a borderline WR1, but he’s another great cash game play as he’s projected for our third-highest opportunity score and faces a Falcons defense that struggles vs. slot receivers. If you’re playing the Monday night slate, Jordan Matthews ($5,000 DK; $5,600 FD) projects well from a $/opp standpoint — he ranks outside the top 35 in pricing on both sites, but his opportunity score ranks second. Matthews also makes for a fine GPP play as I don’t think his ownership will be high at all.

We don’t have Quincy Enunwa ($4,100 DK; $4,900 FD) projected for a very high score (ranks 43rd), however, the Patriots have struggled mightily vs. slot receivers recently and at this price you could easily see Enunwa hit 4x value if he can find the end zone. From a $/opp standpoint, Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK; $7,000 FD) looks like a great GPP play, but the 49ers are better against slot receivers on short routes than outside receivers running deep routes. Kenny Stills ($3,600 DK; $5,700 FD) doesn’t have a high projected opportunity score, but he’s in an interesting spot where he could break a couple big plays. On DraftKings, Tyreek Hill ($4,800) is an interesting GPP option even though the Chiefs are facing a very tough Broncos defense that typically shuts down wide receivers. Hill isn’t utilized in a conventional way as he’s more of a WR/RB hybrid and could rack up a bunch of short catches and is a threat to break one for a big play or two.

Tight Ends

If you’re playing on the main slate this Sunday, it’s a rough landscape for tight ends. Your best option from a $/opp perspective is Charles Clay ($2,700 DK; $4,700 FD), but he doesn’t have the floor you want in cash so I’m only throwing him in GPP lineups. We don’t have this next guy projected for a huge opportunity score (ranks 22nd), but Vance McDonald ($3,000 DK; $4,800 FD) has averaged 3.3 receptions and 60 yards over his last three games and has scored two touchdowns.

In cash games, I can’t recommend any of the $/opp plays in good conscience so this looks like a week to pay up in cash and get Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, or Jimmy Graham in your lineups. If you’re playing on the Monday slate, however, Zach Ertz ($3,700 DK; $5,00 FD) makes for an interesting cash game play for reasons stated above (see Wentz, Carson).

Good luck everyone!