Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 14 Yahoo! DFS.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Baker Mayfield | 25.9 Opp Score | $29
Is there a bit of a revenge factor when it comes to Baker Mayfield and Kliff Kingsbury, the college coach who didn’t offer him a scholarship and gave him no playing time at Texas Tech? Maybe, but that’s not why I’m playing Mayfield this week (okay, it’s a little bit the reason). The Cardinals defense has been a sieve to opposing quarterbacks (Devlin Hodges and the non-existent Steelers pass game excluded).
Prior to last week, the Cardinals were giving up a ton of expected points to the likes of Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo (twice) and Jameis Winston.
Phillip Lindsay | 17.8 Opp Score | $20
The Chiefs run defense is terrible and despite not playing full-time, Phillip Lindsay is seeing plenty of work for a running back priced at $20. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 18 opportunities. In a game where the Broncos should be trailing and needing to score a lot of points, I would suspect that those opportunities skew more towards higher-valued targets.
Miles Sanders | 19.5 Opp Score | $15
With Jordan Howard‘s status still up in the air for Sunday and Miles Sanders‘ price still not increasing (thanks Yahoo!) this is a slam dunk play. Washington has been allowing plenty of receptions to opposing running backs — 13 total receptions to Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones the last two weeks. The Eagles offense is looking extremely sparse now as the injuries continue to pile up so it would not be a surprise to see them lean on their running game.
Kenny Golladay | 19.2 Opp Score | $28
Last week, Kenny Golladay‘s expected points bounced back after a three-week hiatus and he did not disappoint with six receptions for 58 yards and one touchdown. This week, he gets the ultimate matchup vs. the Buccaneers secondary and somehow costs less than $30. If he can continue the expected-points momentum, he has a solid shot at putting up the top wide receiver score on the week.
Michael Gallup | 21.6 Opp Score | $21
Contrary to popular belief, both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper are viable WR1 options on a weekly basis. When it comes to DFS Gallup typically is the one who comes at the discount despite putting up an identical WOPR since the Cowboys’ bye week. Saving the $8 is nice, but Gallup should also avoid Jalen Ramsey‘s coverage in this specific matchup which makes him the clear play.
Robert Woods | 21.6 Opp Score | $18
This is a simple case of price not catching up with a player’s role — Robert Woods has taken of the WR1 duties for the Rams as Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks are both clearly not 100% healthy. Over his last three games, Woods has posted WR1 expected point totals and now ranks fourth overall in expected points per game.
Dede Westbrook | 19.2 Opp Score | $13
With D.J. Chark ruled out, look for Dede Westbrook to step into a huge role against a secondary that is prone to giving up big games to opposing wide receivers. Over the last three weeks, Westbrook has seen a 20% share of team targets and averaged 14.3 expected points per game. He was clearly priced as if Chark were still active so take advantage of the savings.
Tyler Higbee | 16.8 Opp Score | $14
Don’t look now, but there’s a new tight end on the DFS landscape and his name is Tyler Higbee. Again, the Rams pass offense is hurting with both Kupp and Cooks playing at less-than-100 percent so his increased usage (see WOPR trends below) isn’t a fluke. The Cowboys are a plus-matchup for opposing tight ends and given his increased usage and cheap price I think Higbee is the top tight end value on the board.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the Sunday plays above:
Good luck this week!