Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 9 Yahoo! DFS.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Carson Wentz | 18.4 Opp Score | $31
Playing quarterbacks against Seattle is generally a good strategy and it looks like Carson Wentz will also be getting Alshon Jeffery back this week. Take a look at the recent production vs. Seattle — there’s a lot of green:
Wentz is coming off a rough game vs. a very good Patriots defense, but he did put up 40 pass attempts and over 400 air yards so you know the Eagles are willing to air it out when needed. With Jordan Howard set to miss another game this week we could see Wentz put up similar opportunity numbers.
Baker Mayfield | 17.8 Opp Score | $29
It hasn’t been often that we’ve seen the Browns offense implied for a lot of points, but this week they get a cushy matchup with the Dolphins, which makes Baker Mayfield an intriguing option. It’s been a disastrous season for Mayfield and the Browns in general, but this is a “get right” spot and this offense needs it in the worst kind of way. As long as the running game doesn’t hog all the production, Mayfield should easily hit value.
Phillip Lindsay | 20.7 Opp Score | $19
Phillip Lindsay saw his snap share spike to 64% last week and if that continues he’s a bargain at his current price.
Even better news is that Royce Freeman‘s snap share dipped to 30% so it’s clear who is becoming the alpha in this backfield. Lindsay was already putting up borderline RB2 opportunity numbers while in a 50/50 timeshare so this will be a welcome boost if it holds steady.
Jaylen Samuels | 15.5 Opp Score | $17
With James Conner out this week Jaylen Samuels is a lock-button play — especially with how banged up the Steelers’ passing options are as well. Samuels has basically doubled his production in games where Conner hasn’t played and he’s an asset in both the run and pass game so he’ll be game script proof. The cherry on top is a plus matchup against the Bengals defense.
Miles Sanders | 14.6 Opp Score | $14
Another running back who is seeing a spike in playing time — Miles Sanders played 85% of the snaps with Howard out last week and while Howard will likely miss again the Eagles do expect to work in Jay Ajayi more. That said, Sanders’ price is far too low with his current role and Ajayi isn’t a big threat there given he wasn’t even on the team two weeks ago.
Odell Beckham Jr. | 14.4 Opp Score | $22
Odell Beckham Jr. is officially cheaper than Jarvis Landry despite the Browns feeding OBJ more as of late (see WOPR trends below). That spike in opportunity meets the hapless Dolphins on Sunday and that couldn’t be a more perfect marriage for a DFS boom week. He was inches away from finally scoring a touchdown last week and I would bet big money he finds pay dirt at least once — look out.
D.J. Chark Jr. | 21.6 Opp Score | $21
Nick Foles returned last week and really seemed to focus on D.J. Chark as 52% of his air yards went Chark’s way. The Titans are not known for their great cover corners so I’m expecting Chark to continue his breakout 2019 season with another big week.
Ben Watson | 9.6 Opp Score | $12
If you can fit Zach Ertz here he’s a great option, but I’m going to be looking to save money at tight end this week. I’m taking a leap of faith here, but Ben Watson is playing a healthy share of snaps (81%) and the Patriots are hurting at wide receiver with both Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett doubtful. This
should could funnel some extra opportunity to Watson and the Cowboys haven’t exactly been stout vs. tight ends recently.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the plays above:
Good luck this week!