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Dollars Per Opportunity: Eat So Much It Ertz

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 13 Yahoo! DFS.

Thanksgiving marks the beginning of crunch time in football season. We’re about to hear one million playoff scenarios, fantasy football playoffs are about to kick off and the DFS grind is in full swing. The Thanksgiving slate is one of my favorites so this article includes one play for Sunday’s slate as well as a play for Thursday’s slate.

As always, within this article you will see screenshots from various amazing tools that RotoViz provides, such as the Stat Explorer, GLSP Projections, Pace App, Game Splits App and DFS Optimizer.

Let’s get to the plays!

Get $25 FREE at Yahoo! DFS with your first deposit using promo code “VIZ25”!

QUARTERBACK

Nick Foles | 27.0 Opp Score | $30

Play quarterbacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s it. That’s the analysis. Play Nick Foles.

Mitch Trubisky | 26.5 Opp Score | $23

If you’re looking to fit in the Turkey Day studs then you’ll have to save somewhere. Mitch Trubisky gives you that opportunity and has a great matchup vs. the Lions. This season, Trubisky has only exceeded expectations twice — Week 3 vs. Washington and Week 10 vs. Detroit.

RUNNING BACK

Eagles RB TBD | n/a Opp Score | $n/a

Given that it is still very early in the week it’s hard to recommend a running back on the Eagles, but I know you’ll want to play one of them. The Eagles are nine-point favorites on the road and this offense is in need for some serious Dolphins therapy. Just ask how that went for the Browns last week. My top option is Jordan Howard ($18) if he suits up, but, if not, Miles Sanders ($16) could end up stuffing the stat sheet after teasing DFS players with his usage spike in consecutive weeks.

Tarik Cohen | 11.6 Opp Score | $16

The Bears have been getting Tarik Cohen involved more in the passing game as of late — he’s averaged six targets per game over his last five, including nine targets last week. The Lions have also allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs in their last five games.  A Trubisky-Cohen stack is a great way to differentiate yourself on Thanksgiving. Sort of like your vegan cousin who brings his own tofurkey, but in a good way.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyler Boyd| 16.8 Opp Score | $16

Positive regression finally hit for Tyler Boyd — he posted a 9-5-101-1 stat line — and now he gets an unexpected upgrade at quarterback without the added salary spike. Prior to the last two weeks (soft schedule), the Jets were giving up big weeks to opposing wide receivers and with Andy Dalton back under center the Bengals pass game could be in for a nice rebound.

Amari Cooper | 26.4 Opp Score | $30

I’m mashing Amari Cooper into my lineups this Thanksgiving even after putting up a rare goose egg in New England. His home/road splits have been quite drastic since joining Dallas (see table below). He has a tougher matchup this week against Tre’Davious White but Cooper is good enough to win that matchup and I’m hoping we’re able to get him at depressed ownership.

TIGHT END

Zach Ertz | 19.2 Opp Score | $19

Zach Ertz was $22 last week and now gets an even better matchup against a much worse team. Will the Eagles have to air it out as much against the Dolphins? No. However, Ertz has gobbled up a 30% target share over the last three games so he doesn’t need the Eagles to throw 30-plus times to have a lot of expected value.

Good luck at tight end on Thanksgiving as it’s slim pickings. You’re basically trying to avoid a zero and anything else is gravy (see what I did … ah forget it).

Lineup Optimizer

Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the Sunday plays above:

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Tarik Cohen.

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