Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our Game Level Similarity Projections to find the hidden DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Week 14 Yahoo! DFS.
Let’s get to the plays!
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Sam Darnold | 27.3 Opp Score | $30
Sam Darnold has quietly been putting up some solid numbers from an expected points perspective — he’s ranked as a QB1 in three of his last five games — and he gets a great matchup vs. a surprisingly competitive Dolphins team. In their last matchup, Darnold put up a very good 20.9 expected points and the Jets are coming into this matchup with a healthy 25.5 implied point total. The GLSP model loves him as his median projection ranks behind only Aaron Rodgers.
Alvin Kamara | 17.7 Opp Score | $28
Anytime a running back like Alvin Kamara drops below $28 I take notice. Kamara has been extremely involved in the Saints offense and specifically the passing game, which is what we love to see from the running back position (even if it’s not PPR scoring). He ranks fourth overall in expected points per game with a 70% snap share and 22% target share. Admittedly this is speculation, but the Saints’ best shot a beating this 49ers defense it to keep the pass rush off balance with short passes and to avoid challenging their talented secondary. Kamara could be in for a spike week at a discount and suppressed ownership.
Devonta Freeman | 14.6 Opp Score | $20
The Panthers defense has been absolutely dreadful vs. opposing running backs (see below) and Devonta Freeman is in need of a “get right” week. Freeman came back from injury last week and stepped right back into the lead role combining for 22 targets and rushes with a 67% snap share. That kind of role paired with the cheap price of $20 is all I need to hear to play him on Sunday.
Mike Evans | 24.0 Opp Score | $31
There are some weeks where a play just jumps off the page from the GSLP model and Mike Evans is that play here. I mean, if you look at the projected score probabilities below, his bar graph for “greater than 25 points” is literally off the chart! I haven’t had much luck choosing between Evans and Chris Godwin on their smash weeks, but I’m going to just chalk that up to dumb luck and keep at it. Evans looks like the surefire play vs. a Colts secondary that isn’t really equipped to deal with him.
Kenny Golladay | 21.6 Opp Score | $26
A lot of people will avoid Kenny Golladay because of his quarterback, but we all saw that David Blough is more than capable of producing quality fantasy weeks for his receivers. The Vikings have been getting torched by opposing wide receivers recently — specifically WRs facing cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who had an especially rough Monday night. I’m expecting Golladay to be matched up with Rhodes plenty and that’s not a matchup anyone should fear. Golladay bounced back on Thanksgiving with 141 air yards, which is a good sign, and given the Lions are double-digit underdogs. We should see plenty of pass attempts from the Lions offense.
Parris Campbell | 7.2 Opp Score | $10
Parris Campbell has twice eclipsed a 60% snap share and each time he saw eight opportunities. The Colts are hurting for receivers — they’re down T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Devin Funchess — so Campbell’s workload should stay high and it couldn’t be a better matchup for him to showcase his elite athleticism as the Buccaneers are in town. Oh, and did I mention that he’s the minimum price on Yahoo!?
Vance McDonald | 14.4 Opp Score | $16
Listen, if you’re not playing tight ends against the Cardinals at this point I can’t help you. Just lock Vance McDonald in and watch the points roll in.
Here’s what the DFS Optimizer spit out after locking in some of the Sunday plays above:
Good luck this week!