Fantasy football is a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round.
You can find the previous values by round here:
Next up, Round 9.
Let’s take a stroll down to value town.
The big question in South Florida is who’s going to fill the gaping hole left by Jarvis Landry and his 146 targets and 1,026 air yards.
By ADP, the market is indicating perennial tease DeVante Parker is the best bet to finally break out and lead the Dolphins in receiving in 2018.
While Parker’s ADP has set up shop in the seventh round for the summer, Kenny Stills is going two rounds later. He’s not a sexy name, but Stills is the best bet to lead the Dolphins in receptions.
It doesn’t take much imagination to come to that conclusion. Stills’ 1,574 air yards last season were not only significantly better than Parker’s 1,206, but they were also ahead of Landry’s. His average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.4 was also well clear of Parker’s 12.7.
Stills dominated the Dolphins’ air yards distribution down the stretch.
Stills had the ninth-most air yards of all WRs in 2017, more than guys like Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen. That’s not only a function of Stills’ skills, but also the value of the Dolphins passing game.
Here are 2017’s top-four teams ranked by WR expected points.
Miami – 644.4
Pittsburgh – 601.5
Tampa Bay – 600.7
Green Bay – 590.1
Miami’s WRs led all teams in expected points by a solid margin, and with the same coaching staff in place, they’ll be up there again in 2018. Adam Gase loves to pass the ball, and he hasn’t been shy about feeding Stills.
Last week, I looked at who was the WR to own in San Francisco — Pierre Garcon or Marquise Goodwin. In the end, Garcon was the guy, but I believe the best value in San Francisco in 2018 is tight end George Kittle.
Of 196 rookie tight end seasons since 2007, Kittle’s 2018 was the 12th best. His 106.5 PPR output was just a few points behind the rookie seasons of Jordan Reed and Zach Ertz, and ahead of fantasy stalwarts such as Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham.
TEs who produce in their first year tend to take a big step forward in year two. The top-20 rookie TEs over the past 11 seasons have averaged 153 fantasy points in their second season.1
|PLAYER||SEAS||Rec||Tgts||Rec Yds||Rec TDs||Yds per Tgt||PPR||PPR N+1 Year|
If Kittle takes take a reasonable step forward and scores somewhere in that second-year average band, he would be a top-10 option at the position.
He’s currently the TE13 by ADP, despite being the the top 94th percentile in air yards and top 96th percentile in weighted opportunity rating among TEs.
Kittle’s numbers remained about the same with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. However, with the team having a full offseason to acclimatize to Kyle Shanahan’s system and their new quarterback, the entire offense should be better in 2018.
Both the player and the team are poised to take a step forward this season, and if you’re not going with an elite TE strategy, Kittle is a must-target TE in the later rounds.
- The average doesn’t including those TEs who didn’t play in their second season; however, it does include Tyler Eifert’s 6.7 points in an injury-shortened sophomore season. (back)