Fantasy football is a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round. Next up, Round 8.
Let’s take a stroll down to value town.
Isaiah Crowell is slowly starting to creep up draft boards, but he’s still going behind several running backs who don’t project to see the field nearly as much as he does in 2018.
Last year, Crowell was consistently going in the third round of best ball drafts. That was much too high, but now he’s fallen to RB40 — far too low for a guy who is locked in to a lead-back role. Why? What has changed since last year?
- He joined the Jets. Their offense is not exciting, but it can’t be considered a major downgrade on Cleveland’s.
- He had a down year in 2017, despite heavy usage. This seems to be the big reason for the 2018 price drop.
- He’s no longer competing with one of the best pass-catching backs in the league in Duke Johnson.
At worst, Crowell’s situation went sideways this off season, while it could be argued that he actually he’s better setup for success in 2018.
The Jets backfield has the 13th-most expected points in 2017, while the Browns were 17th in terms of expected output.
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Bilal Powell is a decent receiving back, but the Jets had no problem taking some of that work away form him when Matt Forte was healthy last season.
Crowell also carved out an average of 47.5 targets over the past two seasons, despite competing with Johnson. Not only is he the two-down back, but he’s a lock to get at least 40 targets in 2018.
Sure, Crowell was inefficient as a runner last season, but most backs on an 0-16 team would be, too.
Ignore the efficiency numbers and focus on the opportunity. The Jets of 2018 will be better than the Browns of 2017 and will be leading more games, leading to more carries and more points. Crowell has little-to-no competition and has been a proven producer in the past, with an RB14 finish in 2016 to his name.
He has a real shot at RB2 numbers again in 2018 and is a tremendous value for anyone going the Zero RB route in their drafts.
With apologies to Drew Brees, who is also a value in this part of drafts, the best QB value in the eighth round is Cam Newton.
In 2015, Newton was the overall QB1. Last season, he was the second-highest scoring QB in fantasy football.
Now, the Panthers have an upgraded WR corps, their No. 1 TE Greg Olsen is back from injury, and yet Newton is being drafted as the QB6. That’s behind one mobile QB coming off major reconstructive knee surgery, and about on par with another recovering QB.
Both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson probably have QB1-overall upside, which they showed last year. But Newton is the only QB among the three who has actually finished a season as the QB1 overall, and he’s the only one among these three who’s not currently recovering from a major injury. Why drafters would want to roll the dice on riskier, less-proven options when they could wait to draft a proven stud like Newton is beyond me.
Newton is everything you want in a fantasy QB. He’s durable, having missed only three games in his career. His rushing prowess gives him a fantastic floor, and he’s basically the team’s best goal line option. We know he’s got the ceiling, as evidenced by his overall QB1 and QB2 finishes in recent years.
He’s outscored this year’s consensus fantasy QB1, Aaron Rodgers, in two of the past three seasons on a per-game basis.
Newton gets Olsen, his top target, back in 2018, and the Panthers spent a first-round pick on a WR widely considered the best in the draft in D.J. Moore.
If healthy, the overall QB5 is probably Newton’s floor. Unless, you want to wait for the double-digit rounds to grab your QB, which is a fine strategy, then Newton looks like an incredible value if he’s there in the eighth.