revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

The 2 Best Fantasy Values in Round 3

Fantasy football is a game of finding inefficiencies in the market. Armed with the MFL10 ADP app, we have the visual means to help us find the players who have the best chance at beating the market and paying off at their current cost in MFL10 best ball drafts.As part of an ongoing series, we’re counting down the best values in each round.

You can find the previous values by round here:

Round 13

Round 12

Round 11

Round 10

Round 9

Round 8

Round 7

Round 6

Round 5

Round 4

We’re getting into an area of the draft where the term “value” is a little misleading. These players don’t come cheap, but they can still win you a league — ie, DeAndre Hopkins in the third round last year.

Rob Gronkowski

I had to double check that Gronk’s ADP is still indeed in the third round. It doesn’t seem right, and yet here we are staring down the barrel of a 25th overall ADP for the best TE in the league my a mile.

There is no player that gives you such a singular advantage at one position than Gronk. He’s cleared 1,000 yards receiving in three of the past four seasons and his been a weekly TE1 in 74 percent of his games.

gronk

He’s effectively the same price as Travis Kelce, who is going one spot later in MFL10s, yet he’s outclassed the Kansas City TE on a per-game basis in every year but an injury plagued 2016.

Capture

Forget comparing him to TEs; Gronk stands as one of the elite fantasy producers among all pass catchers.

He outscored every WR in the league on a per-game basis except for Antonio Brown, Hopkins, and Keenan Allen. When he’s on the field, Gronkowski is straight up outproducing other WRs who are going ahead of him by ADP.

PLAYER POINTS GAMES AVG
Antonio Brown 310.3 14 22.2
DeAndre Hopkins 309.8 15 20.7
Keenan Allen 284.2 16 17.8
Rob Gronkowski 227.3 13 17.5
Larry Fitzgerald 261.4 16 16.3
Jarvis Landry 260 16 16.3
Michael Thomas 258.5 16 16.2
Julio Jones 251.9 16 15.7
Adam Thielen 239.8 16 15
Tyreek Hill 239.2 15 15.9
Travis Kelce 233.5 15 15.6
A.J. Green 226.8 16 14.2

It’s difficult to make an argument for Mike EvansDavante Adams, or even A.J. Green over Gronkowski, when the big guy scores more points than them at a position that is far more scarce.

Gronkowski should be going a solid round ahead of where he is now, and he’s a steal at the end of the second, or early third.

Doug Baldwin

On the surface, Doug Baldwin appears fairly priced. He was the WR11 in 2017 and is the 10th WR off the board this year. Perhaps he’s not a bargain relative to his position, but in this, the Year of the RB, he’s a screaming value in the third round.

I won’t quibble if you want to load up on guys like Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey in the second round, but why drafters would rather roll with unproven backs like Joe Mixon and Jerick McKinnon over Baldwin is beyond me.

baldwinCapture

If you’re going Zero RB this year, Baldwin’s price allows you to fill your WR3 slot with a WR1.

There’s reason to believe Baldwin has an even bigger ceiling in 2018, too. With the offseason departures of Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham, Baldwin is the only show in town. The pair accounted for 210 targets and 2,188 air yards last year, and the Seahawks have made no notable additions to their pass catchers, unless you believe a Brandon Marshall renaissance is in the works.

Even if Seattle slants more run heavy in 2018,  those 210 vacant targets mean Baldwin is a lock to improve on his 116 targets from last year, and it’s not like he needs an excess of volume to produce.

Over the past two seasons, only one WR has been more efficient (reFPOE) than Baldwin. You may have heard of him.

PLAYER reRECS.Q1 reTRGS.Q1 reYDS.Q1 reTDS.Q1 reFPOE.Q1 PPR.Q1
Antonio Brown 207 316 2817 21 100.2 615.6
Doug Baldwin 169 241 2119 15 89.9 475.05
Tyreek Hill 136 188 1782 13 84.7 440.8
Brandin Cooks 143 231 2255 15 80.2 465.5
Michael Thomas 196 270 2382 14 74.8 518.2

With a average yards per target mark of 9.2 yards over his career, any additional volume for Baldwin this season would have a significant impact on his already-robust bottom line.

Between an increased role and a depressed price, Baldwin is easily one of my top targets of 2018.

recent and related

In case you missed it

Rapid Reaction: Third Round Opportunity Outlook

  What a crazy ride Day 2 of the draft was. I’m exhausted from excitement. The landing spots attained by the high end skill position players in this class is going to make this draft class a force for years to come. The third round will have a more abbreviated

Read More

2019 Dynasty Rookie Rankings and Tiers: Post-NFL Draft Edition

  Post-NFL Draft 2019 Dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings are here! Which rookies hit the trio of strong profile, early draft position, and great NFL landing spot? The RotoViz team has already adjusted their outlook on which players are the best dynasty investments. I’ve drawn in the tiers based on

Read More

Box Score Scout: 2019 NFL Draft First-Round Player Comparisons

  February to April is ruled by Draft Twitter. Countless hot takes, I’m right/you’re wrong, and no middle ground. As always, there were plenty of surprising draft picks, which certainly affects fantasy football value. While the media oftentimes uses the best case scenario for player comparisons, the RotoViz Box Score

Read More

3 Rookie WRs I’m Targeting in Dynasty Leagues After the NFL Draft

  With the NFL Draft in the books, it’s time to turn our attention to dynasty league rookie drafts. Some wide receivers landed in perfect situations while others fell further than expected. With receivers like Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon slipping to Day 3, rookie draft position is in flux. However, some

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.