A Complete Set of 2018 Projections: Updated

On August 15, I released a full set of projections for the 2018 season. I’ve made significant updates since then which are included in the following tables. Currently, it’s unclear how significant the injury Marqise Lee suffered this weekend is. To give you a sense of the ramifications that a season-ending injury would have, Jacksonville has been projected without him.

Introduction

Throughout the last month, we worked our way through each division to create a set of projections for 2018 season. In this post, we’ll put all of these projections together.

As I harped upon in the introductory article and mention on nearly every episode of RotoViz Radio, projections are just a single input into a broader decision-making process. Resist getting married to these or any projections. They are just best guesses, that in some cases lack context, don’t address a player’s range of outcomes, or speak to his downside/upside. I’d highly recommend checking out the historical projections included in the stat explorer.

While building these projections, I did my best to think critically, question my biases, be objective, and work out what I view to be the most likely outcomes for each player. I’m fully expecting a number of my projections to be horribly wrong. That’s fine and it’s part of the process. I’m less concerned with pinpoint accuracy and more focused on understanding what we can reasonably expect from a player and the variables that can greatly impact his 2018 production. This was an extremely useful exercise in helping me develop expectations of each player’s range of outcomes for the coming season.

If you don’t want to go through the process of projecting each team, I’d still recommend that you play around with the projection machine. You’ll learn a lot, and if you strongly disagree with my projections, you can gain an understanding of the things that would need to happen in order for your expectations to be realized. Feel free to share your projections on the forums and let me know where I am way off.

Use the export options to download the projections.

A DEEPER DIVE INTO EACH DIVISION

For further details on how I developed my initial projections for each team, refer to the divisional articles.

AFC East     AFC North     AFC South     AFC West

NFC East     NFC North     NFC South    NFC West

QUARTERBACK

PlayerTeamPtsCompAttYdsTDIntAttYdsTD
Russell WilsonSEA31435555440152911844622
Aaron RodgersGB3023735754023347291471
Tom BradyNE296380565448832833430
Cam NewtonCAR296307515346426161145695
Carson WentzPHI28935157039623013672702
Patrick MahomesKC28536456244302415582912
Drew BreesNO2764075654508271133331
Alex SmithWAS2753665604061238542452
Deshaun WatsonHOU27532454137372614552474
Tyrod TaylorCLE27536355339152310612753
Jared GoffLAR2743475304292281028561
Marcus MariotaTEN27331951237642613553282
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT2723975924605281321430
Andrew LuckIND27236556842672815341521
Kirk CousinsMIN27136855042872412471402
Andy DaltonCIN26934552040602612421272
Matthew StaffordDET26137458043422413371201
Jameis WinstonTB2573555804363241724842
Matt RyanATL25537354543732413301070
Philip RiversLAC2543725854304271417330
Dak PrescottDAL25032450034752313562813
Sam BradfordARI2443745854240221416162
Eli ManningNYG2443655754060271516320
Ryan TannehillMIA24436158039212415381691
Jimmy GaroppoloSF2403876004237241429290
Case KeenumDEN23833855037132212411222
Blake BortlesJAX23631053533992117613982
Mitch TrubiskyCHI23533854536062114472132
Derek CarrOAK2283205203740241333980
Joe FlaccoBAL2173686083808211521531
Josh McCownNYJ21033659037931715341201
Josh AllenBUF17227448230311518321272

Running Back

PlayerTeamPtsAttYdsTDTargetsRecYdsTD
Le'Veon BellPIT374315141510107856913
David JohnsonARI3322801176999677004
Todd GurleyLAR31231614231164483823
Alvin KamaraNO277193886785685424
Saquon BarkleyNYG2752631053886634722
Ezekiel ElliottDAL27531813681050353152
Melvin GordonLAC2702731036970534213
Kareem HuntKC2692571106873554382
Christian McCaffreyCAR2632138513103725775
Dalvin CookMIN257246986783584622
Jerick McKinnonSF243231924678554203
Leonard FournetteJAX2322961183943322221
Devonta FreemanATL230191803865494022
Joe MixonCIN224232952662473981
Alex CollinsBAL2212411034761402961
LeSean McCoyBUF2182641135653362671
Mark IngramNO216207951945352541
Royce FreemanDEN2072711085744292151
Jay AjayiPHI2042801118834231511
Lamar MillerHOU202229914549392922
Dion LewisTEN200159685461483594
Tevin ColemanATL199179750649363403
Rex BurkheadNE196226925545342782
Marlon MackIND193232926545322702
Tarik CohenCHI183112436287654523
Kenyan DrakeMIA181188750552372742
Jordan HowardCHI1792491023733211380
Derrick HenryTEN177218939720151382
Marshawn LynchOAK169246986631211320
Chris ThompsonWAS16866304278564524
Chris CarsonSEA166202806728211661
Peyton BarberTB163208832541282130
Isaiah CrowellNYJ153215903530191400
Duke JohnsonCLE14545180072585183
Giovani BernardCIN142114456252393322
Kerryon JohnsonDET142164624535251781
Aaron JonesGB140155715429201212
Matt BreidaSF138126504254352812
Sony MichelNE132141578428211742
Carlos HydeCLE130151604433231631
Devontae BookerDEN125118470244292572
Jamaal WilliamsGB12517268952316970
Theo RiddickDET12358193064483833
Ty MontgomeryGB11763252158383612
Rashaad PennySEA117113454428211452
Doug MartinOAK113163602326171101
CJ AndersonCAR11114457451510741
Bilal PowellNYJ11086361247322411
Latavius MurrayMIN11016365141712870
TJ YeldonJAX108102439232241662
James WhiteNE10771282140302523
Adrian PetersonWAS10613651752215950
Darren SprolesPHI10358249340262202
Tavon AustinDAL10228126255332643
Elijah McGuireNYJ10295369044302262
Ronald JonesTB10115257831711831
Javorius AllenBAL101118473143281381
D'Onta ForemanHOU10013754831612911
Austin EkelerLAC9783330229221762
Chris IvoryBUF96137573224161070
Nick ChubbCLE951516044117410
Seahawks RB3SEA942184050372434
Nyheim HinesIND9251192134262303
Kalen BallageMIA8541173137272192
LeGarrette BlountDET81106445564250
Frank GoreMIA8010941331712860
Rob KelleyWAS7513250311711740
Chase EdmondsARI7480320129201540
Spencer WareKC7475321222171260
Corey ClementPHI687731621711721
Jordan WilkinsIND63105442264290
Malcolm BrownLAR62933722118520
Rod SmithDAL516626211511730
Raiders RB3OAK49238112114912
Wayne GallmanNYG487329201712710
Kenneth DixonBAL414216902416870
Jaguars RB3JAX3851204253260
Saints RB3NO3538162264270
Jaylen SamuelsPIT3143179164290
Giants RB3NYG2853211064240
49ers RB3SF2634134164270
Alfred BlueHOU2632128154280
Buccaneers RB3TB2516611128550
Chargers RB3LAC2341165064280
Rams RB3LAR2328112154240
Bengals RB3CIN2234128132130
Bears RB3CHI212286154230
Broncos RB3DEN202386164230
James ConnerPIT194718700000
Cardinals RB3ARI162496064250
Ito SmithATL162697054240
Panthers RB3CAR152594053230
Buffalo RB3BUF132380053180
Chiefs RB3KC111250064260
Titans RB3TEN9239105000
Vikings RB3MIN493706000

Wide Receiver

PlayerTeamPtsTargetsRecYdsTDRushYdsRush TD
Antonio BrownPIT340180119160410000
DeAndre HopkinsHOU305173104143310000
Michael ThomasNO30015311313778000
Keenan AllenLAC28516411113377000
Odell Beckham JrNYG28215093125111000
Julio JonesATL2801539815145000
AJ GreenCIN2731469213488000
Doug BaldwinSEA2611399412158000
Larry FitzgeraldARI26015210811346000
Davante AdamsGB2501388710789000
TY HiltonIND2441428112956000
Tyreek HillKC239118781067712621
Adam ThielenMIN2371328612275000
Stefon DiggsMIN2351218511017000
Demaryius ThomasDEN2261388710406000
Brandin CooksLAR2221117211077000
Golden TateDET2211288910095000
Allen RobinsonCHI213136759747000
Mike EvansTB2121397410336000
Kenny StillsMIA2121286610487000
Robby AndersonNYJ2041367510085000
Amari CooperOAK203120719886000
Jarvis LandryCLE202122898445000
Jamison CrowderWAS200118789475000
Alshon JefferyPHI197125699316000
Marquise GoodwinnSF197126739505000
Devin FunchessCAR191108638477000
Juju Smith-SchusterPIT190104659146000
Robert WoodsLAR189101668846000
Sammy WatkinsKC188107609276000
Emmanuel SandersDEN188121709124000
Marvin JonesDET1871046010124000
Josh GordonCLE186105619755000
Chris HoganNE18596618477000
Randall CobbGB183104727396000
Cooper KuppLAR18295638506000
Kelvin BenjaminBUF180116648785000
Devante ParkerMIA172110667934000
Michael CrabtreeBAL170116677045000
Ted GinnNO16985588594000
Will FullerHOU167975478265180
Allen HurnsDAL167100627755000
Pierre GarconSF166102667963000
Rishard MatthewsTEN16092558024000
Nelson AgholorPHI16097606915000
Mohamed SanuATL15787636914000
Tyrell WilliamsLAC15382517624000
Quincy EnunwaNYJ153106567603000
Chris GodwinTB15187568073000
Jordy NelsonOAK15188536635000
Tyler LockettSEA15194587303000
Julian EdelmanNE15093626584000
Willie SneadBAL14891597113000
Sterling ShepardNYG14686566624000
Kenny GolladayDET14593536884000
Keelan ColeJAX143102547003000
John RossCIN14183487004000
Paul RichardsonWAS14084506804000
Cole BeasleyDAL13985555694000
Jaron BrownSEA13789466315000
Corey ColemanBUF13692506304000
Ravens WR4BAL13685546443000
John BrownBAL13585456594000
Christian KirkARI13382556043000
Phillip DorsettNE13273496403000
Terrance WilliamsDAL13275516223000
Dede WestbrookJAX13096516383000
Michael GallupDAL13075495754000
Cameron MeredithNO12773485823000
Albert WilsonMIA12684545433000
Calvin RidelyATL12676505853000
Corey DavisTEN12682466063000
Raiders WR4OAK12573475684000
Dante PettisSF12378495653000
DeSean JacksonTB12381446363000
Travis BenjaminLAC12276406373000
Donte MoncriefJAX12180435104000
Martavis BryantOAK12178445783000
Chester RogersIND12074465953000
Jermaine KearseNYJ12089475723000
Danny AmendolaMIA11977525252000
Mike WallacePHI11980455813000
Brice ButlerARI11970425903000
Torrey SmithCAR11772365484000
Ryan GrantIND11268425073000
Broncos WR4DEN11166424993000
Jaguars WR4JAX11080444993000
Taylor GabrielCHI11065435312000
J'Mon MooreGB10869414554000
Rams WR4LAR10864414883000
Patriots WR4NE10765424863000
Anthony MillerCHI10776404853000
Geronimo AllisonGB10663394713000
Taywan TaylorTEN10667385243000
Kendall WrightMIN10561394723000
Terrelle PryorNYJ10586435092000
James WashingtonPIT10465394813000
Lions WR4DET10264404623000
Antonio CallawayCLE10166384773000
Tyler BoydCIN10157394124000
Courtland SuttonDEN10166374623000
Josh DoctsonWAS10173364913000
Adam HumphriesTB9864434342000
Mike WilliamsLAC9876384183000
Giants WR4NYG9358364212000
Braxton MillerHOU9270423592000
Chris ConleyKC8856354531000
DJ MooreCAR8562343742000
JJ NelsonARI8458284492000
Saints WR4NO8345323802000
Russell ShepardNYG8258323862000
49ers WR4SF8042293433000
Redskins WR4WAS7745303592000
Vikings WR4MIN7544293492000
Eagles WR4PHI7340253023000
Texans WR4HOU7249272953000
Titans WR4TEN7141253322000
Seahawks WR4SEA6944273192000
Zay JonesBUF6658262862000
Bengals WR4CIN6539252792000
Kevin WhiteCHI6038242761000
Browns WR4CLE5739252521000
Falcons WR4ATL5633212342000
Panthers WR4CAR5536222491000
Colts WR4IND5434202451000
Chiefs WR4KC5134202331000
Jeremy KerleyBUF5043222171000
Steelers WR4PIT4627182121000

Tight End

PlayerTeamPtsTargetsRecYdsTD
Travis KelceKC2251248310526
Zach ErtzPHI215120818957
Rob GronkowskiNE20296639707
Delanie WalkerTEN171102677455
Jack DoyleIND16697705996
Jordan ReedWAS15684646385
Jimmy GrahamGB15681526287
Greg OlsenCAR15098596874
OJ HowardTB14375496135
Evan EngramNYG13786515855
Trey BurtonCHI13682535854
George KittleSF13578536103
Kyle RudolphMIN13477525115
David NjokuCLE12783484815
Cameron BrateTB11864414895
Austin HooperATL11760435054
Eric EbronIND11768444964
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAX10964404454
Charles ClayBUF10772464832
Jared CookOAK10362394893
Luke WilsonDET10164404423
Jesse JamesPIT10165443803
Ed DicksonSEA9961374203
Benjamin WatsonNO9657383843
Ricky Seals-JonesARI9564344263
Virgil GreenLAC9559373743
Tyler EifertCIN9247323764
Hayden HurstBAL9067393692
Mike GesickiMIA8758373473
Gerald EverettLAR7648283183
Vernon DavisWAS6939253242
Jake ButtDEN6844282912
Stephen AndersonHOU6854272842
Jonnu SmithTEN6741262583
Vance McDonaldPIT6238232952
Jordan LeggettNYJ5838252441
Tyler KroftCIN5731212043
Garret CelekSF5636232451
Geoff SwaimDAL5335222212
Nick BoyleBAL4936212011
Niles PaulJAX4832191932
Will TyeNE4828181842
Rhett EllisonNYG4629191871
Tyler HigbeeLAR4332181871
Ryan GriffinHOU3927161731
Nick VannettSEA3822141442
Chargers TE2LAC3823151521
Jermaine GreshamARI3723161591
Seth DeValveCLE3722141651
Michael RobertsDET3423141441
Adam ShaheenCHI3422141421
Dallas GoedertPHI3217111192
Nick O'LearyBUF3119121461
Lee SmithOAK2921141220
Clive WalfordNYJ271510940
Demetrius HarrisKC2722121071
Josh HillNO2617121041
Logan PaulsenATL211610781
David MorganMIN21118781
Jeff HeuermanDEN212214141
Ian ThomasCAR21158851
Durham SmytheMIA201710850
Marcedes LewisGB18126741
Blake JarwinDAL14106600