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Dollars Per Opportunity: Smash Hunt in GPPs

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.

I ended up treading water again in Week 2 with a 6-5 records — another one barely over .500. Luckily, in cash games you didn’t need to crush value as 2.7x (about 135 points) generally cashed in double ups. Overall, my record stands at 11-9 and, again, I’m looking to hit at least 3x value on every pick.

Let’s get to the plays!

Week 3 $/Opp Cheat Sheet

QUARTERBACK

Deshaun Watson | 37.7 Opp Score | $6,100 DK

Everything with Deshaun Watson is a small sample, but take a look at these splits with and without Will Fuller in the lineup:

deshaun_splits

The good news with Watson is that he has a solid floor thanks to his rushing ability — he boasts consecutive 40-yard rush games — and while Houston is a bottom-10 offensive line in terms of pass protection, the Giants come into this matchup with the league’s worst pass rush. Give Watson a little extra time to throw in a cleaner pocket and he should make good on the second-highest projected opportunity. He has some of the best equity on the slate due to being priced as the QB7.

Philip Rivers | 32.2 Opp Score | $5,800 DK

Philip Rivers‘ opportunity score doesn’t jump off the page, but what did was his median and high GLSP projections via Dave Caban’s Week 3 Explorer Tool. Other than Ryan Fitzpatrick1, Rivers has the highest ceiling projection at 30 points and his 21.6-point median projection ranks second only to Aaron Rodgers. The Chargers will have to score to keep pace with the Rams so don’t be surprised to see Rivers air it out in what has a good probability of being a shootout.

RUNNING BACK

Kareem Hunt | 26.1 Opp Score | $6,000 DK

Kareem Hunt‘s salary has dropped every week — down from $6,900 in Week 1 — and you could argue this week he’s in his best spot of the season. A lot of DFS players have probably soured on Hunt at this point because he hasn’t been part of the Patrick Mahomes extravaganza. However, the Chiefs are massive, 6.5-point favorites for their home opener and Hunt’s opportunity score ranks 11th on the slate. He’s due for some positive regression, especially in the red zone, and the Chiefs passing game can’t be this efficient the entire season (I think), which should lead to more opportunity for Hunt.

Phillip Lindsay | 21.4 Opp Score | $4,600 DK

I mentioned before how Rivers’ GLSP projection jumped off the page — well multiply that by 100 for Phillip Lindsay. His floor, median, and ceiling are tops at his position as outlined in this week’s GLSP running back article. Yes, that includes both Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley. If you’ve been reluctant to jump on the Lindsay bandwagon, it’s time to pull the trigger. The Broncos should be in a more pass-heavy game script2 so Lindsay could see some higher value given his ability in the pass game.

Dion Lewis | 23.2 Opp Score | $4,500 DK

It’s going to be a headache all season as we try to decide which running back to play in Tennessee, but the projections this week are screaming to play Dion Lewis. First off, the matchup vs. the Jaguars defense isn’t as scary as it sounds. Lewis’ opportunity score ranks 17th and he’s priced as the RB29. I don’t expect the Titans to test the Jaguars secondary too often, which should lead to an increase in valuable touches for Lewis in the pass game.

Corey Clement | 17.5 Opp Score | $4,300 DK

With both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles questionable for Sunday, Corey Clement could be in for a major workload at a bargain of a price. He’s already the 16th-ranked running back from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with Ajayi factored in, and if we remove Ajayi from the equation then Clement becomes the ever valuable “free square” DFS play.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen | 22.5 Opp Score | $7,300 DK

Keenan Allen is the cheapest he’s been this season due to a tough matchup vs. the Rams secondary. While he will see a fair share of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, Allen also does a lot of work in the slot — 52 percent of snaps — and the Rams haven’t shown a tendency to shadow any wide receivers. If the Chargers are smart, Allen should continue to see plenty of targets in the middle of the field — his opportunity score ranks fourth at the position — and we all saw what Jared Cook was able to do in that area in Week 1.

Demaryius Thomas | 19.5 Opp Score | $5,200 DK

So far, Demaryius Thomas has been Case Keenum‘s safety blanket as he’s the only wide receiver with an average depth of target under 10 yards. Thomas leads the team with 21 target, but barely edges out Courtland Sutton with 195 air yards. Still he leads the team in both and, as I mentioned before, the Broncos should be in a pass-heavy game script, which means a lot more targets for a wide receiver who is about $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings. His opportunity score ranks 11th while he’s being priced as the WR24.

John Brown | 12.9 Opp Score | $4,800 DK

On the other side of the Broncos matchup, John Brown is in a great position to put up a monster performance against a Broncos secondary that had a very poor showing against Derek Carr and the Raiders3. Brown comes into this game just two targets behind Michael Crabtree, but has a whopping 33 percent share of all team air yards.

Tyler Boyd | 12.3 Opp Score | $3,700 DK

We all know who alpha is in the Bengals pass offense, but don’t sleep on Tyler Boyd, who has created quite the gap between himself and the rest of the team. Despite A.J. Green putting up a monster three-touchdown performance last Thursday, it was Boyd who really shined with a 9-6-91-1 line along with a 44 percent share of team air yards4. Boyd has carved himself a nice role in this Bengals offense and you won’t find any wide receiver with a higher ceiling under $4,000.

TIGHT END

Austin Hooper | 9.7 Opp Score | $2,900 DK

Let’s be honest, the tight end position is brutal this week. It’s tough to pay up because you want to play guys like Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley, so I’m paying all the way down. Austin Hooper doesn’t get the best matchup, but with Devonta Freeman out we should see an uptick in passing. With the Saints there’s always the potential for a shootout, in which case Hooper should easily exceed 3x value. You’re getting the 14th-ranked opportunity at sub-$3,000 with some upside.

Other solid tight end options because they are cheap and play a ton of snaps — Jonnu Smith ($2,700) and Ian Thomas ($2,800). Both of those players don’t necessarily have great projections from the standpoint of touches, but they are on the field for at least 90 percent of the snaps so they make for decent punt plays.

  1. yes, this is a thing we’re typing in 2018.  (back)
  2. Denver is +5.5 on the road at Baltimore.  (back)
  3. Broncos cornerbacks allowed 18 receptions on 20 targets for 178 yards  (back)
  4. His 0.65 WPOR was higher than Green’s 0.57, courtesy of data from airyards.com  (back)

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