Dollars Per Opportunity: Marshawn Lynch Revenge Game

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.

I turned in my first losing week of the season with a 4-6 record (now 27-22 on the season). The major misses were trusting Ty Montgomery‘s (1.3x) usage over Marquez Valdes-Scantling and also getting burned by Taywan Taylor (1.0x) and Vance McDonald (0.4x) value plays. That being said, I still hit on Blake Bortles (4.3x), Joe Mixon (3.0x), Adam Thielen (3.6x), and my cover boy David Johnson (3.3x) — albeit he didn’t quite hit GPP-winning upside.

Let’s get to the Week 6 plays!

Week 6 $/Opp Cheat Sheet

QUARTERBACK

Jameis Winston | 36.3 Opp Score | $5,800 DK

Everyone wants a piece of this Falcons-Buccaneers game and its 57-point total. We don’t have much to go off of for 2018 when it comes to Jameis Winston, but I’m fairly confident in saying he’d be at least $500 more expensive if he had started the first four weeks. The Bucs have averaged 28 points and 363 passing yards with Ryan Fitzpatrick so you should have no hesitation firing up a cheap Winston who is a three-point underdog with a team total of 27 points.

Joe Flacco | 35.7 Opp Score | $5,200 DK

Joe Flacco has been an opportunity machine this season — he has averaged 45 pass attempts per game and ranks second with 106.7 expected passing points. However, he hasn’t done much with that opportunity yet — he currently has a -3.2 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) in the passing game. Via the RotoViz Screener:

flacco-screener

If we see his efficiency pick up a bit he could smash value making him a nice GPP play and while the Titans defense has been above average this season you’re not making a huge bet on him at $5,200. He’s priced as the QB19 with the eighth-ranked opportunity score, which is the most equity on the slate.

RUNNING BACK

Marshawn Lynch | 21.7 Opp Score | $5,300 DK

Marshawn Lynch has been surprisingly game-script proof this season, which we can easily see via the Weekly Explorer Tool viz:

lynch-script

The Raiders come into this game as three-point underdogs so don’t expect this game to get out of hand. Lynch has dominated 68 percent of the snaps as well as 68 percent of the red-zone touches among the Raiders backfield. Lynch is priced as the RB15, but you’re getting the 11th-ranked opportunity score, which is something you don’t see very often at his price point. Hopefully London has some skittles to shower Lynch with if he finds paydirt. And I didn’t even mention this was a major revenge game narrative.

Chris Carson / Mike Davis | 21.1 / 14.4 Opp Score | $4,400 / $4,100 DK

We know the Seahawks love to run the ball so it’s not inconceivable to play both of these running backs together in cash games given how cheap they are. Chris Carson is the safer bet of the two — he’s the third-best value on the board (vs. 31st for Mike Davis) — but both have high ceilings as noted by Charles Kleinheksel in this week’s GSLP article. The Seahawks have gone three straight games where they’ve run more than pass and as three-point favorites I expect that to continue for a fourth week.

Tevin Coleman / Ito Smith | 16.9 / 6.2 Opp Score | $5,400 / $3,100 DK

If Devonta Freeman is ruled out, a lot of ownership is going to flock towards Tevin Coleman, but I’m more excited about Ito Smith. Not only is he $100 from the minimum price, but Smith has been very involved in the offense, especially in high-leverage situations.

ito-smith

Despite playing zero snaps in Week 1 and only 12 snaps last week (remember, Freeman was healthy), Smith still has soaked up 48 percent of the red zone opportunities. Both running backs are severely underpriced due to the late-week news. Once Freeman is removed from the projections they should see a major bump in projected opportunity score.

WIDE RECEIVER

I’m not writing up any wide receivers from the ATL-TB game as they are all in play. If I had to rank them (taking into account price) they’d go as follows: Julio Jones (23.6 opp score; $7,900), Mike Evans (24.3 opp score; $8,100), Mohamed Sanu (13.5 opp score; $4,800), Chris Godwin (13.0 opp score; $4,400), DeSean Jackson (14.6 opp score; $5,900), Calvin Ridley (14.6 opp score; $6,300).

Jarvis Landry | 23.2 Opp Score | $6,600 DK

Per usual, Jarvis Landry comes in as one of the top values (ranked fifth) with the seventh-ranked opportunity score and WR14 price. Blair Andrews had a great blurb about him in this week’s Outperformers, Disappointments, and Buy Lows. Rather than re-hash what he said, I would recommend you read and take his advice. The bottom line is that Landry is due for some major positive regression and is too cheap when considering DraftKings is a PPR format.

Amari Cooper | 16.5 Opp Score | $5,200 DK

No one knows what to do with Amari Cooper as his weekly opportunity trend looks like it belongs on a new Six Flags’ location blueprint.

amari-cooper-wopr

All I can say is that Cooper’s price has decreased by $2,100 since Week 1 and he’s still involved in the offense — albeit inconsistently — so if you have the stomach for him in GPPs you’ll likely get him at low ownership and the potential for a spiked week. He’s the 14th-best value on the board this week and facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in all games but one.

John Brown | 14.4 Opp Score | $5,500 DK

If I told you that a wide receiver was averaging 10 targets and 206 air yards in his last four games and was priced at just $5,500 you’d be all over him correct? For some reason when that name is John Brown it’s not as exciting to people. You can add in the fact that he’s also coming off his worst game of the year (14-4-58-0 receiving line). The reason for the lack of enthusiasm likely has to do with the fact that he’s paired with Joe Flacco, but this season that connection has been very good (the best in Flacco’s recent years). Via the RotoViz AYA App:

flacco-brown-AYA

I fully expect Brown to rebound this week and if he even hits on one of his deep targets he’ll hit value. His upside is tremendous, which is shown by his GLSP ceiling of 22 points.

Keke Coutee | 15.1 Opp Score | $4,600 DK

Keke Coutee has seen a ridiculous 22 targets in two games and has the ability to break a big play at any time. He also gets to face the Bills and avoid Tre’Davious White‘s coverage since he plays primarily out of the slot. Plus, any wide receiver priced under $5,000 that has this kind of GLSP projection should be an auto-play in DFS.

coutee-glsp

TIGHT END

Vance McDonald | 11.3 Opp Score | $3,700 DK

The tight end position is ugly this week and there’s no chance I’m paying up for Eric Ebron so we’re back to the Vance McDonald well despite getting burned last week. Over the last three weeks, McDonald has really separated himself as the pass-catching tight end — he’s averaged 26 routes per game while Jesse James has averaged 15.7. I’m going to chalk up last week to variance and the fact that the Steelers were playing from ahead most of the game. This week the Steelers are road underdogs vs. the Bengals so hopefully McDonald sees a little more action like we were used to.

Using our DFS Lineup Optimizer here at RotoViz I was able to construct the following lineup after locking in a couple of my suggested plays above.

DFS-lineup-wk6

Good luck in Week 6!