Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire Pictured: Alvin Kamara

 

The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every class started out like this.

Here is the 2017 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running backs or wide receivers in PPR that year. This table shows the first two rounds of 12-team dynasty ADP, plus any players drafted after Round 2 that finished top at their positions.

 

Seventeen players already have one top season after only two years. Compare that to the 2012 Draft Class or the 2013 Draft Class which only had seventeen players accomplish the same.

The QBs

Mahomes has something in common with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. These 8 QBs are the only QBs to have finished, at least once, as the QB1 since 2006. Rodgers finished as the QB2 in his first year as a starter and has finished as the QB1 or QB2 in 7 of 11 seasons. Peyton’s whole career was filled with Top 6 finishes. If you assume Mahomes has a similar career as those two, he’s a very safe pick in a start up draft, even with an early pick.

Deshaun Watson was able to build on his high scoring shortened rookie year with a top-4 finish in his second year. His long term future looks bright. Watson’s splits with Will Fuller are excellent.

The RBs

To say this is a great RB class might be an understatement. McCaffrey, Kamara, Joe Mixon, James Conner and Dalvin Cook are all top-20 dynasty picks. Leonard Fournette, Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen and Aaron Jones are all inside the top 60. Kareem Hunt has the lowest ADP and might be the best value if he can overcome his off-field woes. He’s a free agent in 2020. Two back to back top-12 finishes is impressive considering he only played eleven games in 2018.

If you own one of these backs, you’re hoping they join the grid that follows.

These are the Top scoring RBs (1500-plus PPR points over a career) of the last couple decades. Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, and LeSean McCoy are the only current active backs who qualify.

RED indicates 400 or more points; YELLOW, 300 or more points; and ORANGE, 250 or more points.

David Johnson is the only RB of the last decade to break 400.

The WRs

Smith-Schuster leads this WR class by a sizeable margin. He has the profile to be a perennial stud like the other rookie WRs that hit prior: Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. Julio Jones and A.J. Green. Kenny Golladay is coming on strong and there’s still plenty of hype for Mike Williams and Cooper Kupp. The Titans spent a second-round pick on A.J. Brown, which can’t be seen as good news for one-time dynasty darling Corey Davis.

The TEs

All signs point to yes on George Kittle dominating the position for years to come. David Njoku is in a prime position with Baker Mayfield now under center. Having notched one top-12 finish in his 2nd year, Njoku should be considered a Dynasty TE1 for the foreseeable future.