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Alex Smith – Fantasy Sleeper

asmith

Alex Smith, 2013 Fantasy Sleeper.

Yesterday Matt Lutovsky at Sporting News wrote a piece about about the potential Fantasy value of Alex Smith.

Let’s just do a little math. Over the past two seasons in San Francisco, Smith averaged 27.3 passes in the 24 “full” regular season games in which he played. During Reid’s tenure in Philadelphia, his teams averaged 34.7 passes per game. Over the past three seasons, they averaged 36.1. We’ll split the difference and say 35.4 passes per game for the purpose of this exercise.

Smith’s average yards per attempt the past two years was 7.3. Over a 16-game season with 35.4 passes per game, he would’ve thrown for approximately 4,135 yards. Add in his rushing totals (over 11 yards per carry and 130 total rushing yards in each of the past two seasons), and you have a pretty solid scoring fantasy quarterback, at least in terms of yards.

It’s nice to have some company at the party. Our own Shawn Siegele made the case for Alex Smith as your fantasy QB back in February. Shawn said “Andy Reid doesn’t trade for a guy just to tell him to hand it off.”

In 12 team drafts, Smith is currently the 35th QB selected, making him an excellent target as a late-round starting QB.

Taking out week 10 last year (injured) and week 17 (1 attempt), here’s how our QB Similarity App projects him for 2013. Note however that the app is not aware of the scheme change for Smith.

Projection Summary

FPG Proj (4 for PTDs)

FPG Proj (6 for PTDs)

Low 11 12.9
Median 13.7 15.8
High 16.1 18.8

 

 

 

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