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David Fales, Team Trestman And Opportunistic Buying

davidfales

Are you on board with Team Trestman? Well first of all, you’re welcome. RotoViz was ALL over the positive impacts of innovator Marc Trestman with the Chicago Bears last offseason, writing a multitude of love odes to Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and yeah, even Smokin’ Jay. But it’s 2014, and the upside of all Bears players is priced into their ADP, dynasty and redraft.

Or is it? There is a potentially important future #TeamTrestman contributor who is absolutely free in dynasty. The Chicago Bears 6th round pick, David Fales, doesn’t even have an ADP at the moment.

To begin, 2013 sensation Josh McCown has never been good at football. At Southern Methodist University, he had a career 4.6 A/YA.

Year School Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A TD Int Rate
1998 Southern Methodist QB 9 46 99 46.5 619 6.3 7 8 106.2
1999 Southern Methodist QB 10 125 234 53.4 1434 6.1 11 10 111.9
2000 Southern Methodist QB 11 169 331 51.1 1969 5.9 9 16 100.3
Career Southern Methodist 340 664 51.2 4022 6.1 27 34 105.3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2014.

But surely, before becoming amazing for Trestman as Jay Cutler’s injury replacement, he had to have shown signs of promise in the NFL?

Year Age Tm G GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int AY/A Rate Sk Sk%
2003 24 ARI 8 3 95 166 57.2 1018 5 6 5.1 70.3 25 13.1
2004 25 ARI 14 13 233 408 57.1 2511 11 10 5.6 74.1 31 7.1
2005 26 ARI 9 6 163 270 60.4 1836 9 11 5.6 74.9 18 6.3
2006 27 DET 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 28 OAK 9 9 111 190 58.4 1151 10 11 4.5 69.4 14 6.9
2008 29 CAR 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 30 CAR 1 0 1 6 16.7 2 0 0 0.3 39.6 1 14.3
2011 32 CHI 3 2 35 55 63.6 414 2 4 5.0 68.3 7 11.3
2012 33 CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0
2013 34 CHI 8 5 149 224 66.5 1829 13 1 9.1 109.0 11 4.7
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/29/2014.

So, uh, that’d be a no. Basically, McCown had NEVER been good at football before Trestmen rolled him out and had him start throwing to the Twin Towers of B-Marsh and Alshon. Fales is in a pretty good spot as the, seemingly, heir to Cutler’s throne. Cutler will obviously be the quarterback in Chicago for the foreseeable future. But his lowest sack % in Chicago has been 5.1% and he hasn’t started 16 games since 2009.

Is Fales Good? Plz Respond

The answer, as it almost always is with football, is contextual. I feel confident saying his college resume is far superior to McCown’s at the very least.

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
*2012 San Jose State WAC SR QB 13 327 451 72.5 4193 9.3 9.9 33 9 170.8
2013 San Jose State MWC SR QB 12 312 487 64.1 4189 8.6 8.8 33 13 153.3
Career San Jose State 639 938 68.1 8382 8.9 9.3 66 22 161.7
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2014.

Darren Page of Bleacher Report has done extensive QB charting of the 2014 class1 wherein I found some optimistic data for Fales. Beyond 20 yards, he had a 52% Adjusted completion percentage, or 1 percentage point higher than Teddy Bridgewater. That’s really the only category in which Fales stood out to any significant degree, but I think it’s an important one. Where as McCown had been inefficient throwing deep for his entire career before his 2013 Trestman/Chicago year, he was 10-23 with 5 touchdowns on passes deeper than 20 yards last season.

A quick twitter search of “David Fales Arm” lead to about 20 tweets of some of the hottest takes on the arm strength of a 6th round draft pick that the Internet has to offer. However, the actual data we have would suggest that he has a pretty solid ability to throw the ball deep. I’m no QB quru, but learning to throw an accurate deep ball would seem to be a skill that is probably difficult to learn/acquire. Most quarterbacks can throw a screen pass to Alshon Jeffery or a dump off pass to Matt Forte, but a bomb to Brandon Marshall is a more skilled movement.

Outside of incredibly deep dynasties, Fales isn’t someone that you need to have on your roster immediately, but with 25 man rosters or more, Fales would be a player that I am looking to acquire. Especially in 2 QB dynasty leagues, Fales will be an undervalued asset whose potential production/value will not be realized by the vast majority of the FF community. He landed in a perfect scenario with a full arsenal of weapons. Even if Brandon Marshall goes into a Larry Fitzgerald-esque slow decline, Jon Moore’s favorite Marquess Wilson is waiting in the wings to replace him. Trestman-related fantasy assets will almost always return value and in Fales’ case, the ROI could be astronomical.

  1. which can be found here  (back)

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