Over at Fox Sports, Dan Schneier gives the “lead back” position to Khiry Robinson over Mark Ingram. Part of his argument:
However, as a senior at West Texas A&M, he racked up 430 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 38 receptions. Ingram has just 24 receptions in three seasons in the NFL. Robinson’s versatility as a pass catcher will persuade Payton to choose him in a variety of formations and personnel groupings.
Robinson’s ADP has risen above Ingram’s so he’s not a true sleeper, but he is an interesting late(r) round target. FYI, Shawn Siegele suggested picking up Robinson . . . in January, before his ADP began to rise. The Saints backfield is capable of supporting two running backs from a fantasy perspective, and right now both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson look like backs to own.
ESPN recently reported that tight end Sean McGrath probably won’t make the Chiefs’ final roster. The reasoning? Anthony Fasano and Travis Kelce are clearly ahead of him, and Demetrius Harris offers more upside. The article also notes the Chiefs should use a lot of two-TE sets, which makes sense given their dearth of receiver talent. While that also suggests that Kelce should see a significant amount of work, the deep-dynasty target here is Harris, whom we covered briefly here.
Betting on the NFC North
Sports betting site Bovada has released MVP prop bets. The top five are the usual suspects: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck. But the next four are all NFC North players:
- Jay Cutler 20/1
- Matthew Stafford 20/1
- Adrian Peterson 25/1
- Calvin Johnson 25/1
What does it mean? It seems like Vegas likes the Lions to have a good year, with two players in the top seven, by odds. Bovada has the over/under for wins at 8.5 for Detroit. From a fantasy perspective, the presence of Stafford and Johnson near the top of the MVP odds suggests Vegas thinks Detroit’s offense will be prolific yet again. Megatron needs no analysis, but for Stafford it will be interesting to see if Detroit is favored more often this season. Stafford is a point spread bully when favored.
The Bears also have an 8.5 over/under for wins. An interesting thought here is that Cutler and Stafford have the same odds of being MVP, and similar over/under projections,1 suggesting Vegas thinks they could have similar seasons. For fantasy purposes however, Cutler has a current ADP of 107 overall, versus 41 for Stafford. Max Mulitz made the case for Cutler here. Add “arbitrage play on Stafford” to the list of points in favor of Cutler.
- The over is favored for the Bears; the under for the Lions. (back)