Take a look at his ADP over the past week.
Ray Rice is suspended for the first two games, and Bernard Pierce left the last preseason game with what may or may not have been a concussion. Both may not be a problem because RotoViz favorite Lorenzo Taliaferro leads the NFL in preseason rushing. The Ravens offense certainly seems better so far than it did last season. In addition to the running game working well overall, quarterback Joe Flacco appears to be playing efficiently. Yes, it’s preseason. Yes, it doesn’t matter. But so far, so good. To recap our Ravens related analysis:
- Torrey Smith a WR1
- The Ray Rice Recency Bias Discount
- The S2K Running Back Machine
- Is Lorenzo Taliaferro the next Shanahan System Superstar?
When I wrote 7 Reasons You Should Own Pierre Thomas, his ADP was in the 10th round. Drafters wised up over the summer, pushing his ADP into the fifth round. But it’s come down a bit recently.
He’s probably close to fairly valued now. His recent decline seems to be related to worries about his workload. It’s true that Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson have played more and looked good. But Thomas is still arguably the best “dual threat” running back on the Saints’ roster, which gives him some immunity to changes in game script. Realistically, what’s the worst case scenario? That he gets “only” the Darren Sproles role? Sproles finished last season as PPR RB23. Thomas is being drafted right now as RB27.
Bishop Sankey once again had zero snaps with starters, looks ordinary when in.
— NFL: AroundTheLeague (@NFL_ATL) August 24, 2014
Welp. Sankey has also had some pass protection issues (normal for a rookie) and fumbling problems (woops) in his rookie preseason. As the hype fades, so does his ADP.
RotoViz has been unabashedly pro-Sankey. There’s obviously some growing concern about his redraft prospects however. Personally, I think his talent will ultimately win out relative to Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster, so I’ll be looking to acquire him more cheaply. That might be just me though. Keep an eye on the Buy Low Machine to help gauge his value this season. The machine’s accuracy will improve as games are played, but for now it looks like Sankey starts the season with three of four unfavorable RB matchups. But then his next four look favorable. So he might be even cheaper if he starts out slowly in his first few games. And he might be more valuable at the season’s midpoint. It’s too early to say of course, but the Buy Low Machine will help you anticipate these schedule based swings in value and pursue trades accordingly–whether you’re trying to buy or sell Sankey.
#Raiders RB Latavius Murray having quiet yet productive preseason. 15-53 rushing, 5-38 receiving. No. 3 behind old MJD and injury-prone DMC.
— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) August 23, 2014
I’m not in favor of handcuffing RBs in redraft leagues. But in a dynasty league, Murray is someone to acquire if you have a deep bench. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Darren McFadden (one-year contract) represents a high injury risk, while 29-year-old Maurice Jones Drew presents a moderate risk. In other words, injury, age, and short contracts are all factors that could help Murray see significant usage. Murray was one of our favorite rookie RBs last season. His situation is unchanged this year. To get a sense of what these injury projections are all about, check out the last episode of RotoViz Radio, where Sports Injury Predictor’s founder Jake Davidow explains.
Fair Warning: this is more interesting than actionable.
Second play … Joseph Fauria checks in as the third wideout
— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) August 22, 2014
Good block by Fauria down the field after that Winn catch. #JAXvsDET
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) August 23, 2014
I say this isn’t really actionable because the tight end position in fantasy is so deep that there’s not much need to pursue players with questionable usage, and I fully expect Eric Ebron and the rest of Detroit’s pass catchers to consume so many targets that there’s not a lot left for Fauria. But for what it’s worth, Fauria has earned good reviews this offseason, and is earning preseason looks in a variety of roles and situations. How much transfers to the regular season is an open question, but hypothetically it means that Fauria could have some extra value, especially if Ebron, or another receiver, misses time.