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Top 10 Takeaways from Week 4: The QB Opportunity Report
Image via Stevegarfield/Flickr
Image via Stevegarfield/Flickr

The idea of these reports is to leverage the fantastic Fantasy Efficiency App to give us some sense as to which players are producing more (or fewer) fantasy points than expected based on their usage.

Terms you’ll need to know.

paEP- The amount of expected points from a quarterback given their opportunity
paFPOE- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected. Calculated by subtracting the paEP from the actual amount of fantasy points scored.
paFPOEA- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected per attempt. Calculated by dividing the paFPOE by passes attempted.

Let’s take a look at some notable Week 4 performances.

  • Joe Flacco had the most efficient Week 4 of any starting QB. Flacco posted an insane 0.60 paFPOEA, which is the second-highest single week total this season for starting QB. Steve Smith had a lot to do with it as he “ran around them boys like they were schoolyard kids.”
  • Eli Manning is becoming more comfortable in the new Giants offense as he had the highest paEP this week. He cashed in on the opportunity with a respectable 5.6 paEPOE.
  • Nick Foles was by far the least efficient QB of the week posting the lowest paFPOE of any starter this season. He seems to be up and down since the season started in terms of efficiency; here are his four weekly paFPOE numbers: 7.47, 0.02, 11.34, -14.08. Foles was, however, top six in paEP indicating that the opportunity is there.
  • Despite a negative paFPOE in week two, Matt Ryan is the most efficient QB on the season with another strong showing this week. Ryan was eighth in paFPOE.
  • In the same vein as Ryan, Phillip Rivers continued his strong season with an outstanding performance in Week 4. Rivers posted the third-highest paFPOE and is currently second in season total paFPOE.
  • Andrew Luck took advantage of another plus matchup and delivered the second-highest paFPOE of the week. Luck has the highest paEP in the league this week and has also posted a 0.18 in paPFOEA which is the second highest in the league for all QBs over 100 attempts.1
  • EJ Manuel posted his first negative paFPOE game of the season and it will apparently cost him his job. While that sounds harsh, Manuel was barely positive in the first three games, posting just the 24th-highest total. The Bills announced on Tuesday that Kyle Orton would be starting Week 5.
  • Aaron Rodgers gave Packers fan a reason to “R-E-L-A-X” on Sunday with his first top five paFPOE performance of the season. This should continue as the Pack ranks fifth in SOS from Week 5 to Week 10.

GB SOS 5 10

  • Tom Brady struggled mightily in the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Brady had the lowest paEP of any starter in Week 4 and actually scored less total points than his replacement Jimmy Garoppolo. The backup posted a 5.41 paFPOE on just seven attempts.
  • While Brady struggled on Monday night, Alex Smith thrived at home and pasted the Pats. Building on a strong performance last week, Smith posted the seventh-best paFPOE on the week.

That’s all for Week 4. Check out the Fantasy Efficiency app for every performance from Week 4 and more.

Previous Posts

Week 2

Week 3

  1. Matt Ryan, .25.  (back)
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