Happy Thursday everyone. The holiday season is officially here, and that can only mean one thing- It’s time to win some much needed money! Between these write-ups, our On the Daily Podcast, and the fantastic Game Splits and Daily Fantasy Finder Apps, we’ve got all the tools you need to build winning lineups.
For tonight we’ve got a relatively small four game slate. However, its projected to be a somewhat higher scoring day, with seven of the eight teams projected for at least 100 points. We’ve also got seven teams currently projected by Vegas to outscore their yearly point per game averages.
Let’s take a look at some guys to target.
Russell Westbrook vs Atl- $10,800 on FD, $10,400 on DK
On a night where the point guard position is surprising thin, I’ll more than likely be paying up for the top guy in Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have the highest implied team total of the night at over 110 points, and Westbrook’s price has normalized a bit after spiking after the injury to Kevin Durant. Even with KD back, his upside is still thru the roof as he’s scored at least 57 DK fantasy points in the last eight games he’s seen at least 35 minutes.
Isaiah Canaan @ Brk- $4,800 on DK, $5,000 on FD
Tony Wroten returned for the 76ers over the weekend, but he’s still on enough of a limits restriction to make Canaan a potential value at his price tag. He’s one of Philly’s most consistent scorers,1 and Brooklyn is in the bottom five in terms of fantasy points allowed at both guard positions.
Also Considered- Jeff Teague @ OKC- $6,800 on FD, $6,800 on DK, Jarrett Jack vs Phi- $6,200 on FD, $6,200 on DK
Joe Johnson vs Phi- $5,800 on FD, $5,500 on DK (SF Eligible)
No team is projected to outscore their season average by more points tonight then the Nets, so they make for a nice team to target tonight. Johnson saw a whopping 43 minutes last game with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sitting out, and he could be in line for a similar type of workload tonight. Philadelphia also really struggles with small forwards, giving up the second most points per game to the position on the season.
JJ Redick @ Chi- $4,200 on FD, $4,000 on DK
The Clippers are the only team projected to score less than their season average, so I won’t really be looking to roster many of their players. The one exception is Redick, who seems underpriced on both sites if he’s fully healthy. He scored 31 real points in his last game against the Bucks, and as long as he sees 30 minutes of playing time he’s a solid bet to return value on such a low salary.
Also Considered- Jimmy Butler vs LAC- $8,200 on FD, $7,500 on DK Arron Afflalo @ Sac- $4,800 on FD, $4,400 on DK
Carmelo Anthony @ Sac- $8,200 on FD, $7,600 on DK
Melo has not had a good start to his season, averaging only 21 points per game (lowest sense his sophomore year) on a paltry 40.3 percent shooting. As a result his price has come down almost $1,500 since its peak this season on both sites, making him a great target in this matchup against the Kings. The Knicks have an implied team total of just over 100 points, which is a situation that Melo has done much better in this season.
Bogan Bogdanovic vs Phi- $3,900 on FD, $4,200 on DK
Bogdanovic has started the last two games for Brooklyn, but the results have been mixed. After a poor first game where he scored only 14 fantasy points in 20 minutes, he responded with a 32 point effort in 38 minutes. So which effort will we see tonight? I’d lean more towards the second one after he vowed to be more aggressive looking for his offense, but the bottom line is at this low a price tag it won’t really matter if you’re wrong. He’ll be one of the most popular value plays tonight, especially on Fan Duel.
Also Considered- Thabo Sefolosha @ OKC- $4,400 on FD, $4,900 on DK
Thaddeus Young vs Phi- $7,000 on FD, $7,400 on DK
Even Thad Young thinks he’s getting to be a little pricey at this point, but the fact is that even at this increased salary he would’ve hit close to 5x value on both sites in four of his last five. Philly also allows the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards.
Nerlens Noel @ Brk- $5,900 on FD, $5,800 on DK
Noel has been playing over 30 minutes per game recently (excluding the blowout against the Spurs) and there are rumors that he will return to the starting lineup against Brooklyn. The fit with Jahlil Okafor has been less than ideal, but this is still a guy with the potential to put up 20 fantasy points on defensive statistics alone. He absolutely cannot be trusted in cash lineups, but I really like his potential to put up a big number in tournaments at a low ownership percentage.
Also Considered- Paul Millsap @ OKC- $8,400 on FD, $8,300 on DK
Pau Gasol vs LAC- $8,500 on FD (PF Eligible), $7,700 on DK
If you haven’t been paying attention, you may have missed the major run Gasol has been on, scoring 46.3, 54, 41.8, 62.3, and 49.3 on Draft Kings in his last five contests. As Drew Heinl pointed out in his article yesterday, part of his success can be attributed to the increased playing time for Joakim Noah.
Noah allows Gasol to play on the perimeter a little more in his more natural power forward position, and is also a little less offensive minded then someone like Nikola Mirotic. His price has yet to catch up to his production (especially on DK), and as a result its going to be very hard to fade him in a plus matchup against the Clippers.
Joakim Noah vs LAC- $4,600 on FD, $4,500 on DK
Speaking of Noah, I also like him in this matchup against the Clippers. His minutes seem to be hovering right around 20 per game, which definitely limits his upside, but he’s hit 5x value at this price point in five straight and is a nice building block for cash games. It also seems possible he gets a few extra minutes tonight against DeAndre Jordan, as he’s the only Bulls big with the strength, size, and defensive aptitude to hang with him on the glass.
Also Considered- Al Horford @ OKC- $7,000 on FD, $6,900 on DK, DeAndre Jordan @ Chi- $7,500 on FD, $7,100 on DK
That’s it for today’s picks. As always, if you have any questions about these players or any others I didn’t touch on, please feel free to comment below or tweet me @MattLaMarca. Also, for a more in depth look into GPP strategy, please make sure to check out my article from earlier in the week where I break down two of my lineups from last Thursday.
- Scoring at least 10 real points in eight straight prior to Monday’s blowout vs San Antonio. (back)